Week 3 DraftKings Breakdown
Cash Game’s Breakdown
This is one of the most straightforward weeks in the history of daily fantasy sports. At least from a cash game perspective. In GPP’s you should always try and find pivot points from heavily owned cash game plays. Especially with players that are highly volatile.
Back to cash though. You have to play Murray. The Vikings are massive home favorites, playing one of the worst team I’ve ever seen. You have value with Clement with Ajayi out, Bernard value with Mixon out, and Hunt as a home favorite on the team with the highest implied team total. You’ve got some WR’s in great spots in the mid range, and up top, with some great value options at TE, and D/ST. There are really only a few viable builds with all of this value, so I’d recommend playing some single entry double ups and tournaments. I always advocate for diversifying in tournaments so you should still do that. This week is just a really good one for eating the chalk with high projected lineups.
Michael Thomas: $8,900
Michael Thomas currently projects to be the highest owned player on the slate. I don’t personally think that will end up being true, but that’s how it is right now since we don’t know the status of Ajayi or Cook. If either of them are declared out then I’d expect them to challenge Thomas in ownership. Regardless, Thomas is going to be highly owned…and for good reason. No player in the history of the NFL has started the season with more receptions over the first two games than Michael Thomas. No one. Thomas has 28 receptions over the first two weeks which is absolutely incredible. There is really only one thing going against Thomas and that’s who he’s played. The Bucs are pathetic in pass defense, and while the Browns are improved, they do give up a good amount of yards to the slot. He faces a Falcons defense on the road this week which should be his toughest matchup yet.
I’m very confident in saying that Thomas is good chalk. Even though the Falcons are a tougher matchup, the Saints are a smart team. They will move Thomas into the slot on a good amount of snaps so that he can match up with Brian Pool (their worst CB). I’ll be matching the field or going overweight in ownership this week and I’d suggest you do the same. Thomas has a 37% target market share and that is likely to continue the entire season. This game also has the second highest implied total of the week, and projects to be a back and fourth battle. If you are concerned with this being a road game then don’t be. Thomas has actually averaged more targets, yards and TD’s on the road over his short career. We finally have someone that can match AB’s combination of safety and upside. I’m comfortable paying for that in a week where there are likely to be some nice pay down options.
Top Cash Game Plays:
Eric Ebron: $3,400
This one is just easy. Jack Doyle and his 97% snap share has already been declared out this week. Ebron has actually been fantasy relevant on just a 28% snap share. As the only pass catching TE, on an Andrew Luck lead offense, that’s projected to be trailing in this game, I just don’t see a reason not to play him. Mack is also out and it’s not like Wilkins and Hines are going to be able to do anything on the ground. Luck is going to have to throw the ball 50+ times, and a lot of that is going to Ebron. At $3,400 you need to just eat the chalk in cash games and play him. There is 100% a case to fading Eric Ebron chalk week in tournaments. I won’t be, but there is for sure a case for doing so.
Nelson Agholor: $6,100
Agholor had a 26% target market share last week which was tops on the team. The targets are basically going to be divided between him and Ertz, with Matthews, Aiken and Clement taking whatever is left. A 26% market share with Wentz at QB, against the Colts, with a 27 point implied total means that Agholor is an extremely safe pick this week. He was used a lot in the red zone both this season and last season and I expect that to continue moving forward. He should be priced near $7,000 so take the discount while you can.
Kareem Hunt: $6,000
You’re playing Kareem Hunt in cash this week. And you should in tournaments as well. We are likely to have 3 other value RB’s, but you just need to play Hunt. He’s a 6.5 point home favorite on a team that has the highest implied point total of the week. Oh and he’s at one of the cheapest price points he’s ever been. His 69% snap share indicates that his role as the lead back in that offense is extremely secure, however the target share indicates that he doesn’t carry the weekly floor that he did in his rookie season. Mahomes doesn’t check down as much as Smith, but that should be offset by the increased scoring opportunities. This week’s matchup isn’t easy as FootballOutsiders has the 49ers as the leagues 9th best run defense in terms of DVOA. I’m playing him in cash and will be overweight in tournaments. He isn’t the lock of the week because of the decrease in passing work and the 49ers being a solid run defense.
Allen Robinson: $5,400
I absolutely love Allen Robinson this week. He had a 41% target market share last week and finally looked like he did back in 2015. He’s been running about 25% of his snaps from the slot, which indicates that they want to use him to create mismatches. Well, there are going to be a lot of mismatches this weekend. If you look at websites CB/WR matchups then you will see Patrick Peterson as his matchup. That’s just not going to happen. Peterson hasn’t shadowed yet this season and I don’t expect that to happen this week. The Cardinals slot CB is Budda Baker and their other outside CB is Jamar Taylor. They both suck. The Cardinals are an absolute mess right now so targeting the opposing offense is a smart decision. At $5,400 Robinson is a free square this week. The 21.75 implied point total is slightly concerning from a TD expectation perspective, but I’m locking him in because of the combination of safety, upside and salary.
Tyler Boyd: $3,700
Boyd was in on 76% of snaps last week and tied A.J. Green for the team lead with 9 targets. You can’t find this level of volume at the WR position for just $3,700. There is a build that could work for both cash games and tournaments that has him at the WR3 spot and that is for sure a route that I might take. A lot depends on if you want to play two stud WR’s or one. If you want to play two then I’d use Boyd. They aren’t using John Ross very much (59% of snaps and just 4 targets last week). The matchup is meh in a road game at Carolina. But Ridley had a nice game last week so Boyd can certainly do the same. They are also missing Mixon so they might decide to air it out more than usual.
Top Tournament Plays:
Tyreek Hill: $8,500
DK seems to be reading my articles (they aren’t). Like I said, Hill is going to be here every week that he’s not more than $8,500 and 40% owned. Well he meets the first threshold with a price tag of $8,500. He doesn’t meet the second though, coming in at a cool 33% projected ownership. TyFreak is just too good to fade. It’s not that the 49ers are terrible against the pass or anything (22nd in DVOA), but Hill is matchup proof, and the Chiefs have that 31 point implied total that I keep referencing. It’s very dangerous fading a player that could go over 150 and 2 TD’s in a single half. I’ll be going overweight in tournaments (like I do every week).
Travis Kelce: $6,700
Mahomes decided to use his entire offense last week! After being a no show in week 1 Kelce played on 98% of offensive snaps and his 10 targets accounted for a 36% target market share. $6,700 is a lot to spend on TE’s since they all come with a very low floor, but he should really be considered in game stacks. San Fran comes in dead last in DVOA against the TE position, and like you have heard a few times now, the Chiefs are going to score a lot of points this week. Mahomes, Hill, Kelce is going to be popular, but there are other spots where you can be different. I’d go overweight on this stack as well.
George Kittle: $4,500
Kittle is a great tournament play on the other side of this game. He was in a great spot last week and then posted a fantastic 2/22 line. Well he now went up in price…and Ebron is just a better play for $1,100 less. No one is going to play Kittle this week and that is probably a mistake. He still had a 78% target market share and still tied for the team lead in targets. They just didn’t run a whole lot of pass plays. If you are building Chiefs stacks then you should have the other side as well. I’d use different combinations of Kittle, Garcon and Goodwin on the other side and hope for an epic shootout.
Marcus Murphy: $3,300
Want a sub 1% play to fit in some studs? Murphy is your guy! The Bills are going to get roasted this week and it’s possible that McCoy misses the game. Murphy looks better than Ivory and will be involved in the passing game. He had a 37% snap share last week and tied for the team lead with 5 targets. If McCoy is out then I’ll be playing some Murphy lineups to fit in Odell, MT and Julio.
LeSean McCoy: $5,100
McCoy isn’t exactly in the best spot this week. He’s a 16.5 point road underdog playing an above average rush defense. On top of that are McCoy’s home road splits. He has averaged 9 less points per game on the road over the past few seasons. It’s just a terrible spot and there are some RB’s in really nice spots. at a similar price point. I can’t even make a case for him in tournaments at sub 2% ownership. It’s just not a smart play this week.
Adrian Peterson: $4,900
Peterson could absolutely make me look like a fool here. I mean…he’s Adrian Peterson. But he’s a massive negative EV play this week. He had just a 25% snap share last week and is only going to get 1-3 targets each week. He needs a TD to pay off his tag, but even then he will just hit value. The Packers run defense is fairly mediocre so he does have that going for him. I just don’t see the need to play him with all the other options at RB. It’s a similar case with McCoy. You could make the case in tournaments, but it’s just not smart.
Demaryius Thomas: $5,200
DT has a brutal matchup against the Ravens this week. The Broncos are 5.5 point road underdogs, projected to score just 19.5 points. Thomas will be matched up against Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr on the outside, both of whom grade out as very good CB’s according to PFF. Sanders has a much better matchup in the slot against Tavon Young and I just don’t see a world where they don’t attack that matchup. Thomas needs a TD to pay off, and banking on a TD from a player in a bad matchup, on a team that isn’t going to score a lot isn’t very smart. I’m comfortable deploying a full fade in GPP’s.
Situation to Watch
Blake Bortles: $5,600
I expect Fournette to play this week, but it’s entirely possible that he doesn’t. If Fournette plays then I’m not playing Bortles. If he doesn’t play then I’ll have a decent amount of him. Bortles, and really the entire Jaguars offense, plays significantly better when Fournette does not play. They have much more aggressive play calling, and therefore increase their efficiency. They play the Titans at home this week, and the total hasn’t been set yet because of Fournette not being declared in or out yet. The Titans are currently ranked as a bottom 7 team against both the pass and the rush. This is a great spot for their team, as long as Fournette doesn’t play. But I think he’ll be out there unfortunately.
Latavius Murray: $5,800
There will be some fish that fade Murray this week. Let them lose. If Murray comes in at 80% projected ownership then just celebrate because you have already beaten 20% of the field. The only question is if you play him, Hunt and Bernard…or if you replace one of Hunt and Bernard with Clement. Regardless, you’re playing 100% Murray. He’s a 16.5 point home favorite against an absolutely embarrassing Bills team. Football Outsiders has the Bills as the leagues worst pass defense and the 19th best run defense. The issue with them isn’t efficiency…it’s the fact that their offense is just so bad. The Vikings are going to have a lot of drives, and many will have great starting field position. Murray is going to be the featured back, and is extremely likely to score at least one TD.
The above image shows Murray’s splits when he has been given more than 17 carries in a game. He has averaged 1.27 TD’s and over 80 rushing yards. I’m not saying that he’s a lock to be the top scoring player. But I find it very hard to believe that he’s going to be the reason you don’t win a GPP. Just lock him in and then differentiate different stacks around him.