Fluke or Truth: Week 5 Underperformers

Author: Jair Oglivie

Twitter: @JairOglivieFFA

Hey, hi, excuse me? Does anyone have a pulse on Mike Evans? Raise your hand if you lost your matchup because of him [facepalm]. Jokes aside, welcome back to Fluke or Truth! Another week passes and once again we have a group of underperformers to analyze. What’s truth and what is just smoke? Let’s find out.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0 points.

Tough day. A very tough day for Evans and his fantasy owners as they watch him disappoint as Chris Godwin explodes for the second straight week. I don’t blame you for being skeptical of the former Texas A&M star at this point. If i owned him before this week I probably would be too. But, before you panic trade him for peanuts, let me tell you why there are more reasons to be hopeful than to be concerned.

First, Marshon Lattimore is pretty good. Since Lattimore joined the Saints in 2017, Mike Evans has posted under 13 fantasy points in 4 of 5 games against him. Additionally, because of this matchup, Evans only received 2 targets on Sunday, something we know won’t continue. Additionally, this year Evans leads the Buccaneers in redzone targets with 6. That’s incredibly valuable on a team that we know can score a ton, and also will give up a ton of points, forcing them to pass to keep up. Remember one of our favorite stats, air yards? Mike Evans is 5th in the NFL (fifth!!!) in air yards per target, at 15.8. What does all this tell us? This means that regardless of being negated by an incredible player in Marshon Lattimore on Sunday, Mike Evans remains one of the top options at receiver that you could be putting out there every week because of his immense talent and immense opportunity. This is not a guy you can bench and this is not a guy that you can sell low on because you’re mad at a donut in Week 5. Conversely, you should absolutely be looking to buy low on Evans if a leaguemate is feeling down on him. Thank us later.

Mike Evans is a tremendous player to own ROS and don’t let anyone tell you different. This is a fluke (maybe fade him next time they play the Saints though).

Fluke

Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

3 receptions on 7 targets, 42 yards, fumble. 6.2 points PPR

It is pretty concerning that Jones had a quiet day when his team scored 32 points in a shootout against Houston. The Falcons as a whole have been pretty disappointing, so this isn’t terribly surprising. Two straight weeks under 10 points for Jones is tough but there is no way you can move from him with matchups against the Cardinals and Rams on the horizon. Both teams are vulnerable in their pass defense leaving a perfect situation for Julio to get back on track. Look for him to have a big day on the road against Arizona this week in a dome. Talent is going to win out here.

Fluke

Odell Beckham Jr, WR, Cleveland Browns

1 completion, 20 yards. 2 carries, 15 yards. 2 receptions on 6 targets, 27 yards. fumble. 4 points PPR

While that is certainly an involved statline for OBJ, seeing him throw, carry, and catch the ball, he didn’t do a ton with his opportunities. Part of this is the Browns getting railroaded by an upstart 49ers team, part of this is we have no idea what the deal is with this Browns offense. Baker looks bad, Odell looks bad, and the playcalling looks terrible. Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb have been the only bright spots on this offense at times and that hasn’t always been at the same times. It’s tough to continue playing Odell at this rate until he shows some sort of production again. If you have better options I highly recommend you play them and resort to the waiting game on Odell. This is truth until we see anything different.

Truth

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

4 receptions on 6 targets, 18 yards. 5.8 points PPR

Similar to what I wrote about about Mike Evans, Keenan Allen’s performance is disappointing but can most be attributed to the shutdown effort by Chris Harris. We rarely see the Chargers shut down like this on offense and its tough to count on that happening again. A bounceback performance against the Steelers in a game that the Chargers should dominate appear to be in the cards, therefore keep the faith in Keenan. Even after this performance he is still the #6 WR in PPR scoring. Roll him out weekly with confidence.

Fluke


Short , sweet, and on to next week! As always, thanks so much for reading, and be sure to check out our other weekly content, including the sister series to this one: Fluke or Truth: Overperformers by Matt (@MattGiffordFFA). Bye for now, and keep the faith in your stars!

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*Statistics courtesy of ESPN Fantasy

**Thumbnail courtesy of tampabay.com

Jair Oglivie