Fluke or Truth: Week 1 Underperformers

Author: Jair Oglivie

Twitter: @JairOglivieFFA

Welcome back everyone to another season of articles from FFA! Week 1 has come and gone, leaving us to enjoy victory or wonder in agony why we thought starting Devonta Freeman was a good idea. You’ve been here before, you know what this is. This is a weekly series covering the high profile players that scuffled the weekend before, often dooming us to a loss. Should we keep the faith in our maligned stars? Or give up and look elsewhere for production. Let me make that decision for you. This is Fluke or Truth.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

8 carries, 19 yards. 3 receptions, 12 yards. 2 fumbles - 4.1 points PPR

Listen, I still think Freeman was a good draft pick at his ADP. Despite the nauseating performance from Atlanta this weekend against Minnesota, we all still expect them to be a good offense. This was clearly a bad start and it doesn’t get easier with Philadelphia coming to town next week. However, this game is at home and the Falcons offense always plays well at home. I wouldn’t blame you if you benched him this week but hold on to him for a little while longer and allow the Falcons offense to regress to the mean. Freeman will return value as a high end RB2 this season I’m sure of it. I’m tentatively calling this a fluke for now. If he posts one or two more duds in the next couple weeks then he will enter into truth territory.

Fluke. For now.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings

2 receptions, 37 yards - 5.7 points PPR

Even in a dominating performance over the Falcons, the Vikings offense only threw the ball TEN TIMES. This is incredibly concerning for owners of Cousins, Diggs, and Thielen (even if Thielen came away with a TD this week). However, even with Minnesota showing they were serious about committing to the run game, there’s no way that can continue. They will throw and they will find ways to get the ball to one of their most electric playmakers, Stefon Diggs. A tough matchup with a reloaded Green Bay defense looms, but unless you have a clearly better option, I’m trotting Diggs right back out there this weekend. Talent and opportunity reign true eventually in fantasy football, and history tells us Diggs has plenty of both. I expect Minnesota to fall behind Green Bay on the road, creating plenty of opportunity for Diggs to make an impact.

Fluke.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2 receptions, 28 yards - 4.8 points PPR

Jameis Winston is pretty bad. This much we know. But, Mike Evans is not. Starting the season with a 2 reception performance on only 5 targets against a questionable defense is not ideal for Evans owners, but there is no reason to expect this to continue. Evans is a player who has had 4 straight seasons of at least 71 catches and 1000 yards, including a 86-1524-8 year last season. Winston has been the QB for Evans for the majority of his career and despite being a turnover machine, he has found ways to get the ball to Evans making him one of the most elite players in fantasy. Hang tight on Mike Evans, even ahead of a short week on the road against Carolina.

Fluke.

David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

6 carries, 18 yards. 1 reception, 27 yards - 5.5 points PPR.

This was painful to watch. There are some good and bad here when considering David Montgomery, and this is coming from someone who has been fangirling this marriage all offseason. First, the bad: Mike Davis. I’ll speak for all of us who have rostered David Montgomery, go away Mike Davis. Even with limited carries, Montgomery flashed and looked like the better player in my opinion. The truth is, the Bears know that too. Nagy said publicly that they are easing Montgomery into the offense. That may be the best course of action for them, but it does us fantasy players no favors. Until we see increased opportunity for David Montgomery I can’t recommend starting him unless you have no better options. Ready for the good? He’s awesome, and he doesn’t have to compete with Tarik Cohen for carries it seems. Someone should have told us that Cohen was the newest slot receiver for the Bears, because he did not have a single carry. What Cohen did have was 10 targets for 8 catches and 49 yards. Montgomery will take full control of the Bears backfield sooner rather than later, just be a little patient if you can.

Truth. For now.

 
 

Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

4 receptions, 36 yards - 7.6 points

Adams had a rough day at the offense (see what i did there?) on the road, against arguably the best defense in the NFL. It didn’t help that his Quarterback also looked bad for large parts of this game. Let’s be real though, this is Davante Adams. He is arguably the most consistent player in fantasy (also shout out to Robert Woods) so there is no reason to worry. You’re starting him every week regardless. This is just a blip on the radar.

Fluke.


Thanks for reading! Be sure to check out our other weekly content, including the weekly Lessons Learned article by Dylan (@dkthom2018), the sister series to this one, Fluke or Truth: Overperformers by Matt (@MattGiffordFFA), and much more. Bye for now, and keep the faith in your stars!

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Jair Oglivie