Lessons Learned: Week 1 of 2019

Author: Dylan Thomas

Twitter: @dkthom2018

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The first week of the NFL is in the books and it was WILD. I hate to overreact to a one week sample size, but let’s break down some of the lessons we can learn from this week…

1) Don’t Overreact

Let’s go back down memory lane shall we… Monday Morning — Week 1 of 2018. TRAVIS KELCE ONLY HAD 1 FANTASY POINT??!!! AND MAHOMES THREW FOR 6 TDS?!

Don’t overreact to one week. It’s that simple. The narratives began with Mahomes being a “TE hater,” and the hate train began. Kelce averaged 19 PPR fantasy points per game after that week. This applies to EVERYONE, especially owners of stud players like Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Joe Mixon, or Nick Chubb. Try to buy one of these guys if you can. It’s only one week. Everyone has a bad week. My point below just shows you how crazy this week was. Very unpredictable for every expert. Take a deep breath and relax guys.

2) The NFL is Unpredictable

I’m going to keep this one simple. Just look at the image below this paragraph. We can’t predict anything. These names are so random and they balled out this week. None of these guys are studs either. This is going to happen. No name players will blow up for a week and vanish into the shadows. Calm down, maybe grab them on your waiver wire, and temper expectations. Week 1 is always funky and this chart below proves that.

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3) Don’t Buy into Running Backs on Bottom Tier Offenses

First of all, this only applies if they are not an elite talent like Saquon Barkley. Kenyan Drake and Derrius Guice were two names people adored due to potentially massive workhorse roles, even in terrible offenses. Both fell flat Week 1 with 4.7 and 6.8 PPR fantasy points respectively during Week 1. These backs aren’t going to get enough quality touches to produce consistently. Whether it be due to poor line play, wide receiver cores, stacked boxes, or whatever you want to argue — the point is the same. Running Backs will be phased out of the game plan as the teams get behind. If they aren’t getting major receiving work, they will be a headache for fantasy owners moving forward.

4) Rookie Hype Trains are Dangerous

There was a lot of hype for rookies this year, especially at the RB position. Montgomery and Sanders were supposed to be work horses and that fell flat this week. Both flashed signs of greatness, but NFL coaches don’t care about our fantasy teams. Both teams have numerous backs and will use them accordingly. Remember, talent wins out in the long run — we just have to be patient. It will take time for them to carve out featured roles. The only rookie RB I’m worried for is Darrell Henderson. Malcolm Brown is obviously ahead of him on the depth chart. He is Gurley’s handcuff. Henderson has been significantly overdrafted it seems…

5) Injuries are Random

While some players like Derrius Guice have more injury risk, anybody can get hurt in the NFL. Guice is unfortunately already having injury problems, but he isn’t the only one. Nick Foles goes down with a shoulder injury. Tyreek Hill is reported to miss time due to a rare clavicle injury. This makes Sammy Watkins incredibly valuable now. This hurts Patrick Mahomes. It changes a lot for the Chiefs offense. Nobody would’ve predicted this injury and it’s because WE CAN’T — injuries are random.

That’s all for Week 1! I’m going to keep these very brief and to the point. Remember to follow me on Twitter (@dkthom2018). Feel free to DM any questions you have at all! I’ll gladly answer every and all questions. Thank you for checking out this article! Good luck in Week 2 everybody and stay tuned for more awesome content!

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Dylan Thomas