Week 6 DraftKings Breakdown
I am very confident about the best plays this week, and very confident about the optimal way to go about building your lineup/lineups. I’m going to structure this article a little different than usual because my player pool is going to be a little tighter than usual. So without further adieu…let’s hop into the breakdown!
Top Plays of the Week:
Cameron Brate - $3,700
If Howard is out then just play Brate. No, he’s not a lock since it’s impossible for a TE to be a lock. But you need to at least match whatever the projected ownership ends up being come Sunday. It’s Wednesday right now and I’m terrible at projecting ownership. But I’d be surprised if he isn’t 30% owned if Howard is out. Brate gets to play the Falcons in the Georgia Dome in a game with a 52.5 projected total. This total is important because of what Brate provides. Brate is an elite red zone weapon and is someone that Winston looks to often when they get in close. I promised you guys that Thielen was going to have over 100 yards last week so I’ll make it two in a row with promises this week. If Howard is out, then Brate will score a TD. I promise.
The Bucs are coming off a bye and get to face a Falcons defense that is now ranked 28th against the pass after being decimated on defense. These are the point totals that the Falcons have allowed so far this season after week 1: 24, 43, 37, and 41. Not exactly a difficult matchup. The upside massively outweighs the risk in this spot.
Watch the DFS video if you want a deeper breakdown on my top two WR’s
Keke Coutee - $4,600
22 targets in his first two NFL games and should be in the 7-8 target range. That’s far too much value to pass up at $4,600 in what shouldn’t be all that difficult of a matchup.
Courtland Sutton - $3,500
Sutton has 5, 6, 3, 6 and 6 targets to start his rookie season. He has also run more routes than DT and has matched him in snap percentage. The Broncos are 7 point home underdogs, but that has more to do with the Rams defense than their offense. They have a few injuries on defense and Peters has been a major liability so far this season. Add to this the fact that Sutton has a higher target share than Shepard, Agholor and Tate and you get a player that is laughably underpriced at just $3,500. He’s currently projected to be around 3%-5% owned. I’ll look to be in the 40% range at least.
Chester Rodgers - $4,500
The Jets are by no means a scary defense. However, they also allow a fairly shallow adot. With no Hilton or Doyle again this game sets up as another dink and dump game for Luck. That’s less awesome from Lucks perspective, but great news for his receivers. There should be opportunity to pick up some cheap receptions for Rodgers, who’s my favorite of the bunch. The upside is fairly limited in tournaments, but he’s great for cash (Coutee is better).
Dede Westbrook - $5,000
Dede is the best WR on the Jaguars and it’s really not that close. Sure Moncreif has air yards, and Cole crushed towards the end of last season…but Dede is the most talented. He disappointing those who used him last week, and then got a price bump. Because of this I’m expecting him to be under 3% owned.
The Cowboys are a very good pass defense, and they just got some pieces back on defense. I expect them to be a great D/ST option this week and moving forward. But that doesn’t mean we can’t play Dede. Because of the elevated price he’s strictly a GPP play…but one that I really like and one that is easy to go 3X the field on.
DeAndre Hopkins - $7,700
According to my very basic model…Hopkins is the best WR play on the week. I really want to get him into my main lineup as I think he is a superior play to Evans. However, as you will see, I sort of have to play Evans. Hopkins is cheaper than average in terms of DKPrice/Target, he has far more air yards than average, his game total is higher than average, and he sees a ton of red zone usage. He has a tough matchup with White, but won’t see him the whole game, and WR/CB matchups are far too overblown anyways. He’s only projected to be 12% owned and I strongly suggest you go overweight on that.
Julio Jones - $7,900
I’m playing chalk Julio Jones…when has that ever not worked out? Like Hopkins, my model is in love with Julio this week. He’s got the highest implied team total of the week, and plays one of the worst passing defenses of the past decade. This is the Julio explosion spot…which is funny to say since he already has multiple games OVER 168 receiving yards. We all know his issues in the red zone, but this could be a spot where he goes for over 200 and a score and I’m not going to miss out on that for just $7,900. He’s under priced by about $600-$800 so take advantage. If you want to fade then I get it. But since he’s projected to be 33% owned, maybe just play 15% if you want to fade him.
I talked about Powell and Carson in the DFS video so make sure to check that out for more thoughts on these two.
Bilal Powell - $4,500
I don’t expect Crowell to play in this game, which makes Powell a chalky, but great play. He’s been over a 52% snap share in every week since week 1, plus the Colts have been destroyed on the ground and through the air by RB’s. If Crowell is out then play Powell. If he plays then you can pivot to some other options in that range, but your really don’t have to. I’m fine playing him if Crowell is active (it’s just obviously not as ideal)
Chris Carson - $4,400
Carson will be in my lineup this week for sure. The Seahawks travel to London for a game with the Raiders. Seattle really wants to run the ball this season and they have been able to find success doing so in recent weeks with the Carson/Davis duo (imagine using a first round pick on Penny…). The two should combine for around 30-35 touches so you could honestly use them both in the same lineup. I’ll be using Carson over Davis since the price isn’t very different and I think the split will be about 60/40 in Carson’s favor.
T.J. Yeldon - $6,400
Yeldon is a great play this weekend from a volume perspective. My current issue is that he hasn’t fit my main build. I’ll be using him in tournaments for sure, but I really want to use a different build than what his price point offers. He’s got a tough matchup against Dallas, but should be able to pay off his price tag in volume. He’s going to be the featured back in this one so he should be good for around 15 carries and 3-5 receptions. Again, I prefer Carson and Powell, but I’ll have some Yeldon
David Johnson - $5,900
If someone told me to start the season that DJ would be in the 5K range come week 6 and that he wouldn’t be in my main build then I would have laughed at them. But that’s the case right now. DJ just hasn’t been involved enough in the passing game and the matchup against the Vikings is tough. The most likely outcome is that he has about 60-70 yards and maybe 1-3 receptions. That’s just not going to cut it for me in my main build. In tournaments though it opens up potential Gurley/DJ/Julio/Hopkins stacks which have major upside.
Todd Gurley - $10,000
Gurley has now become the first player to reach 10K this season! And guess what? I’m going to play a ton of him. Remember that optimal build? Well it has Gurley in it. He’s by far the highest projected RB on the slate and his ceiling is just so much higher than anyone else. If he outscores the next best RB by 10 then you are going to need him to cash. This is similar to the Gronk/Kamara play in week 1. They were a super expensive duo…but it was really easy to fit them both in so you basically had to. I’ve given you Carson/Sutton….now just play a cheap TE and D/ST and you can use Gurley and then stack the best game of the week!
Joe Mixon - $7,500
If you don’t play Gurley then you need to play Mixon. The Bengals are currently one point home favorites against the Steelers and are stabilizing at a 26 point implied team total. Mixon isn’t in a smash spot or anything, but the volume is just so secure. In his first game back from injury he played on 78% of his teams offensive snaps and dominated the volume out of the backfield. He’s a virtual lock for 20+ touches and realistically should push 25-27, with secured goal line usage. I very much want to play Gurley/Mixon/Julio in the same lineup, which would likely mean I would have to come off Evans for Jackson or Godwin. That build is certainly an option and one that I could see myself going towards if Crowell plays. However, if Crowell is out then it’s more optimal to play Gurley/Carson/Powell in my opinion. There is a chance that I drop from Gurley to Mixon, but then I would have to give up my Sutton shares…which is not something that I want to do.
David Njoku - $3,800
TE is a mess on the main slate. Because of this I’m taking the sure routes and targets at a cheap price point with Njoku. He’s seen 18 targets over the past two weeks with Baker at QB. He’s also dominated the TE snaps so there is no concern of him being scripted out of the game. I’m not confident that he’s going off, and if Howard is out then I’ll likely pivot to Brate in cash. But he makes a great tournament play no matter what the status of Howard is. His 12% projected ownership is a little high for a TE. But who else do you really want to play? Clay is fine for $2,700 but the upside doesn’t make me feel all that good about that play.
The Only Stacks:
I’m stacking one game this week and that’s the ATL vs TB game. The total is 57.5 right now which is about 7 points too low. Both of these teams rank towards the bottom of the league in pass defense and are both top 10 in neutral game pace of play. TB is on pace to be one of the worst pass defenses in recent memory, and the Falcons have now allowed point totals of 24, 43, 37 and 41 over the past month. Jameis Winston is back after his suspension…and after being PFF’s top graded QB this preseason. Winston and Ryan are both in absolute smash spots this weekend. I’ll have 321 lineups this weekend, and every single one will have Winston or Matt Ryan.
Below are my favorite players from this game in order by team:
Brate will move to second or third if Howard is out…probably second
In tournaments you should be creative with how you stack this game and with how you differentiate around it. In cash I’d probably play one of the following two combos: Winston/Evans/Julio or Ryan/Julio/(your favorite piece to score on the buccs).
I’d be ok with pairing Coleman and Julio in tournaments, but would probably pick one of the two for cash games.