Week 7 DraftKings Breakdown
Author: Nick Zylak
Carlos Hyde being traded to the Jaguars has changed the completion of this entire slate. In cash games you need to play Chubb now. In tournaments you will need to decide if you want to lock or fade him. There is no in between. I expect him to be around 90% owned in cash games, so you need to play him (you need to play any player that is over 80% owned in cash). In tournaments I’m team lock him or Duke Johnson. If you think that Duke gets extra snaps then it would be wise to make that pivot. I’m of the belief that Chubb is one of the best RB’s in the league…so you can guess which one I’m playing. I’ll only be playing one lineup this week and it is going to have Chubb in it.
With all of this said let’s dive into this weeks best plays!
Just play the Browns:
This should really go without saying, but you should just be playing the offense that gets to face the Buccs each week. They are a historically bad pass defense and have an offense that is capable of getting into shootouts. Every single one of Baker, Landry, Njoku, Chubb and Duke are in play as core plays.
David Njoku - $4,200
Njoku is the only TE I’ll be writing up this week since he’s probably the only TE you should have in your player pool. He’s going to be chalky, but I don’t care. The Buccs have been by far the worst pass defense in the league this season and are giving up points in bunches and the production has been spread around to both WR’s and TE’s. There is no one on this Buccs team that will be able to cover Njoku, and Baker really doesn’t have a ton of options to throw to. Njoku has 7, 10 and 12 targets in Baker’s three starts this season and there is no reason to think he will see any less than 10 targets on Sunday. So we get 10+ targets, against a team that has been gashed over the middle, on a team with very few relevant pass catchers to target. LOCK HIM IN!
Todd Gurley - $9,800
I make a bunch of lineups each week and then try to narrow them down into one main team. Last week I narrowed my choice down to the one we ended up using (easily cashed) and one that had Gordon and Gurley (would have crushed). My reasoning for not going with the Gurley and Gordon team was that these high priced RB’s need to do so much to hit value and I didn’t think they were a massive amount better than my other options.
What I need to remember more is that RB’s are much easier to predict than WR’s and the elite ones often come with even more upside as well. Gurley is for sure expensive this week. However, his price actually went down and he faces a 49ers defense that is solid in DVOA, but that gets roasted by receiving backs. Gurley has 12 more carries than any other player and has an insane 26 carries inside the 10 yard line and 11 carries inside the 5 (second in each of these stats has 15 inside the 10 and 10 inside the 5…and those are different players). Gurley also has 5 targets inside the 10 yard line, which is tied for 8th among ALL PLAYERS. This price is worth it and it’s not that hard to get to this week with the CLE value. Your main concern is if you want to play a second stud RB at the FLEX spot or if you want to just stick with Chubb or Duke with Gurley. I’m leaning towards another stud RB as of Friday night at 9:41.
Duke Johnson - $4,000
I’ve already said that Chubb is a lock. However, there is a real possibility that I use both Duke and Chubb in my lineup this week. I think I’m just going to make one team this week so I’ll need to determine if I sacrifice too much by taking two low priced RB’s. But this is just too good of a matchup. TB is actually really good against the run, but that doesn’t matter for Duke. He’s going to get nearly every third down and will be used often on early downs as well. My current lean is to just have Chubb and to pay up for at least one RB. What I have left for FLEX will determine if I play Duke or not. If I’m in the 4K range then I’ll likely make Duke fit.
Adam Thielen - $8,600
I’ve been overweight on Thielen each of the past 4 weeks and I don’t think I’ll stop until he posts multiple duds, or is over 9K. People still think of Thielen as the guy they got off FA a few years ago and not as the best WR in the league (fantasy wise at least). Thielen has double digit targets in every single game this season and has a massive 44% of the Vikings air yards (only Julio has more). He leads the league in receiving yards and has 9 more receptions than the next best player. This Jets defense is weakest against slot WR’s and the Vikings are projected to score a decent 25 points. Thielen is expensive, but the price is absolutely warranted when you combine his safety and upside. I’ll be playing him and I suggest you do the same.
Josh Gordon - $5,600
This is the week. Josh has been slowed down by a hamstring injury and the Browns coaching staff all year…but this is the week that all changes. On the surface you might be scared of his matchup with the Bears. Don’t be. They are a good defense for sure, but they struggle to defend deep passes and I expect the Patriots to take at least 3 deep shots to Gordon again this week. As per NFL Next Gen Stats Gordon accounted for 30% of the Patriots air yards last week…after the infamous Instagram post and hype from Bill before the game. The Patriots want to unleash their new toy and I think this is the week we get to see the player that lead the league in receiving yards while only playing 14 games back in 2013. This could for sure go south…but I’ll be playing flash.
Tarik Cohen and Taylor Gabriel - $5,100 and $4,700
I like both of these plays this week as the Patriots struggle against quick WR’s and RB’s. Volume is my main concern with these two so they are questionable for cash. But sometimes you have to sacrifice the floor for the ceiling. Both should be in the 4-8 target range, so on a per target basis they likely aren’t worth their price. Against this defense though, in a game where they are projected to be trailing, they have massive upside for their price. I would only play one unless you decide to play Trubisky. My lean is towards Gabriel since I like so many other RB’s and the opportunity cost of playing Cohen might be too high for me.
Damian Ratley - $3,600
I’m really not sure how owned Ratley is going to be this week. Higgins has already been ruled out, so we can expect Ratley to be out there for nearly every. He snap. He ran a route on 49 of 54 pass plays last week, and Calloway has looked like absolute trash recently. Remember what I said above. This Buccs pass defense is posting some of the worst numbers we have ever seen, and yet the Browns are one of the cheapest offenses of the week. You can play Baker/Njoku/Chubb/Ratley/Cheap D/ST as a game stack and you will have $7,325 per player for each of the remaining 4 players on your team. This is a route that I am for sure considering.
CJ Beathard - $4,800
If you don’t want to play Baker this week…then let me introduce you to CJ Beathard. $4,800 is 1K too cheap for a guy who has shown us that’s he’s actually a decent QB. He’s no Jimmy G, but he can get the job done against an overrated Rams pass defense. WR’s have been shredding the Rams recently so there is a chance that Goodwin goes off again. In GPP’s you can pair Beathard with Goodwin or Kittle for a reasonably owned cheap pairing. Beathard to Kittle is a decent pivot off the chalky Baker to Njoku. In cash your QB is either CJ or Baker. If you are playing just Chubb and Njoku then I’d probably lean CJ. If you want more pass catchers from the Browns then go with Baker.
Best D/ST Plays:
Lions - $2,400
Colts - $3,300
Browns - $2,400
Bills - $2,300