Week 12 DraftKings Breakdown
I have almost no time to write this article this week, so I’ll have to change up the format a little bit. I’ll be going over the major pieces in my lineup right now and some of the players that I’ve considered adding to it. This week is wide open so there for sure won’t be one optimal lineup. I’d play less volume then you are used to.
Let’s start with QB. In my opinion you have two options. Jameis Winston or Lamar Jackson. Winston is always a risky play given how much the Bucs coaching staff loves to pull their QB’s, but after losing 3 straight they need to realize that Fitz isn’t the long term answer…and isn’t even the short term one. Look for them to see what they have in Winston over the coming weeks to see if he’s worth an extension. If you don’t want to take the risk then go with Lamar. The Raiders defense is just as bad as the one he faced last week where he put up 19 points even without scoring a TD. He’s probably not going to run as much, but they are also more likely to scheme more easy passes for him. Winston has more upside, but Lamar comes with a higher floor. I’d probably go with the one that fits whatever roster you land on.
At RB I really like Chubb and Mack…with Mack likely being the best play of the week. Mack gets a home matchup with a Dolphins defense that has the third lowest sack rate in the league. The Colts o-line is legit…and I expect them to dominate tomorrow. Chubb isn’t as much of a lock, but he’s going to get 20 carries against one of the worst defenses in the league. We can only realistically project Chubb for 2-3 targets, so his floor is fairly low. However, he’s going to get all of the goal line work, and this defense just got lit up by Gus Edwards…after getting lit up by the Saints RB’s…after getting lit up by Peyton Barber. $6,300 isn’t a massive discount or anything, but it’s perfectly fair and still leaves room for upside.
At WR I’ll a little more iffy. I like Boyd since, even with Green out, he’ll avoid Ward since he runs almost all of his routes out of the slot. Boyd has dissapointed in back to back weeks, but that was in a blowout against the Saints, and against one of the most difficult matchups in the Ravens. This week he gets a home matchup against the Browns. The Bengals are 2.5 point home favorites, projected to score a little over 24 points. Boy had 11 targets last week in a brutal matchup, and if he see’s that sort of volume again then he’s going to smash his 6K price tag. I’ll be playing Boyd, even if it feels gross.
After Boyd I have Humphries right now. Yes, I I’m currently playing Adam Humphries. It infuriates me that they would get him snaps over Godwin, but this is the way it is, and I’ll have to live with it. Humphries is just 4K and has been Winston’s second most targeted receiver. With Howard now out I expect him to lean on Adam a little bit more than usual. The best spot to attack the 49ers is down the left sideline so if you want upside then go with Evans (and downgrade something…or full stack with that last WR spot). Hump should see about 6 targets, which is solid at his price point. I’d much rather pay down at WR this season than at RB.
At TE you have 2-3 options. Ertz/Kittle/Brate. In my eyes Brate fish play. He’s going to be a massively chalky TE that is only going to see about 5 targets. Is his TD expectancy high? Sure…but if he doesn’t score then he’s only going to score 4-6 points. I’d rather spend up for one of Ertz or Kittle. Ertz is masssively involved in his offense…seeing double digit targets in all but 3 games this season. The matchup is middle of the road, and there are slight concerns that Tate will take some work away from Ertz as he gets more snaps. I’m not overly concerned about this, but if you are then go with Kittle. Kittle gets the dream matchup with the Bucs pathetic pass defense. Mullins has looked solid enough in the passing game to where we can trust him to take advantage of this matchup. The Bucs are arguably the best matchup for a TE, and Kittle has been the featured weapon in the 49ers passing game.
I have Fournette in at the FLEX right now. I always play a RB at the FLEX spot, since volume is easiest to project for at the RB position, and we can usually find some solid TD equity. That’s what I like for Fournette this week. Buffalo is a good defense, especially at home. I like Fournette this week purely becasue of the volume and the TD equity. Let me be clear. Fournette is a negative for the Jags offense. But NFL teams aren’t very smart so we can assume they will continue to feed one of the most inefficient RB’s in the league. He touched the ball 29 times on 39 snaps in his return, then 30 times on 35 snaps last week. As long as this game is remotely close, Fournette is getting 30 touches. Given the state of the Bills offense, I find it extremely hard to believe the Jags will fall behind by more than a FG. Fournette is underpriced.
The following are options to either fill out the rest of the lineup, or to replace someone you don’t like as much:
Odell Beckham Jr.