Week 15 DraftKings and Yahoo Breakdown
With Yahoo running the 33% guaranteed overlay contest this weekend, I highly recommend you play on that site instead this week. That is if you only want to play on one. Because of this I’ve added the Yahoo pricing to this breakdown, and added my thoughts on that pricing where I thought it would help. The percentages in the parentheses are the percent of the cap that the player costs for each site. DK first and then Yahoo.
Saquon Barkley - $9,400/$33: (18.8%/16.5%)
Barkley has been under 20 fantasy points once so far this season…while going over 32 in 4 of the last 8 weeks. I’m more than ok paying this price tag to lock in at least 20 points from my RB. This week there is also no CMC or Barkley on the main slate. This means that if Conner misses, that the only RB’s not named Zeke and Barkley priced over 7K will be Fournette and DJ. There is a strong case to be made for paying for BOTH Barkley and Zeke…even at 9.4K and 9K respectively. It feels gross, but they are just so much safer than the other RB’s, and a ton safer than the WR’s. That decision is going to come down to value. If there ends up being enough value options, then I’d do it. If not, then I’d rank the studs in order of their DK prices.
As I’m finishing this write-up I’m finding it hard to recommend both Barkley and Zeke. There are some solid pay down options at RB and if you use both the studs then you are essentially fading all but one of the lower priced guys. With no clear value options at WR, I’d stick to one stud RB.
Ezekiel Elliott - $9,000/$35: (18%/17.5%)
Zeke is a volume play this week, not a price play. A few times this season he’s been egregiously underpriced for the workload he gets both on the ground and through the air. Unfortunately that’s not the case this week. The Cowboys are three point road dogs implied to score just over 22 points against the Colts 5th ranked rush defense. The only reason I’d play Zeke is for the guaranteed points. We know that he’s going to touch the ball 25 times no matter what the game script ends up being. He’s not a good value though.
Dalvin Cook - $6,500/$26: (13%/13%)
Cook is back from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for the first half of the season. He’s played on 77% and 86% of the snaps over the last two weeks, and he’s been extremely involved in the passing game. Their line us still terrible (2nd lowest adjusted line yards) but that should matter less than usual this week against the Dolphins, who have allowed the 4th most yards to RB’s. With 17 targets over the last two weeks, a 26 point implied total, and being more than a TD home favorite, you could do a lot worse than Cook for $6,500. His current projected ownership is 6% (which I disagree with). If he comes in at less than 10% then you should have at least 25%. I’d strongly consider Cook…and our next RB…as part of your main build.
Joe Mixon - $6,100/$23: (12.2%/11.5%)
This price point on Mixon is laughable. He’s going to be chalky (I’d guess around 28%-30% on DK) but I don’t care. All of you know that I’ve think Mixon is one of the best young RB’s in the league, and with this being the second best matchup you can ask for…I don’t understand why he’s not $7,500. Mixon played nearly twice as many snaps as Bernard last week, and he was given a crazy 31 touches on his 47 snaps. With Driskel now at the helm the Bengals are going to try and stick to a run heavy game script for the rest of the season. That bodes well for them as the Raiders have seen the third most rushing attempts in the league. The Raiders have given up 34 or more points in 4 of their last 7 games, while giving up 5 YPC over their last 3, and ranking 27th in rush DVOA on the season. Mixon is going to shred this defense, and is somehow priced down. The only reason he’s not a lock is the concern over his recent injuries. I’ll be well over the field though.
Jaylen Samuels - $5,200/$16: (10.4%/8%)
Despite the strange report that Ridley and Samuels would split time last week (anyone who follow us knows this was obviously not going to happen) Samuels played 80% of the snaps and was highly involved in the passing game. This week I expect more of the same. This is easily the best game of the week, and we can expect both teams to lean pass heavy throughout the game. That bodes well for Samuels, as he is a converted RB…and Ridley can’t catch. He’s not going to see any more than 12-13 carries…but he should get around 6-8 targets, with red zone opportunities. I’m expecting a stat line of around 40 rushing yards, 70 receiving yards, and a receiving TD. At his price point that’s an easy play. He’s going to be chalky so I get a tournament fade. But I’d strongly consider him as part of your main lineup on both sites.
Doug Martin - $4,700/$16: (9.4%/8%)
You can’t think of this as playing Doug Martin. If you do then it’s going to be tough to click his name. Instead think of it like this. You’re playing a sub 5K RB, that’s likely to see about 18 touches, against what’s probably the worst run defense in the league. If you think of it like that then playing Doug becomes easier. This reminds me a lot of the Saints @ Bengals game about a month ago. Ingram was coming off a few bad games, but we all knew that he was underpriced at just $4,600 for the matchup. He was a backup RB that we expected to see abut 13-14 carries and maybe 2-3 targets. He ended up with 13 carries and 3 receptions…for over 160 total yards and 2 TD’s. This Bengals defense is bad, and we know that Doug is going to see all of the goal line work, and has been getting plenty of carries, even in games that they are losing. He’s currently projected for 6% ownership, which I don’t buy. I expect him to be more like 12% owned. If he gets above 15% then I’m much less excited. If he some how stays at around 5% then I’d try and have at least 3X that on both sites.
Jeff Wilson - $4,600/$14: (9.2%/7%)
This play is of course entirely dependent on the health of Breida. If Breida is active then just disregard this play. If he’s out however, then Wilson becomes interesting. He saw just under 90% of the RB snaps and touches last week, and there is no indication that this won’t continue if Breida is out. The Seahawks aren’t an easy matchup, but we can still project him for around 16-17 carries, and maybe 3-5 targets. At under 10% of the salary cap on both sites that’s too good of a deal to fade. I’d consider using him on my main lineup on Yahoo, while going overweight on DK (probably not a main lineup guy on DK).
Davante Adams - $7,900/$30: (15.8%/15%)
Adams is a good, not great play this week. I thought that he was a great play last week, and he was so close to smashing his price tag. This week he gets the Bears price discount, even though the Bears have allowed the 8th most yards and 4th most receptions to WR’s. The Packers team total is under 20, which is not exactly ideal, but no one on the Packers has a better chance to succeed than Adams. The run game is likely to fail, the Bears limit RB and TE receptions, and Rodgers really doesn’t trust the other WR’s as much as Adams. I expect him to be under owned, which is why I’d go overweight in tournaments. It’s still the Bears, so I don’t know that he’d be part of a main build…and he’s not a cash game play. But if hes under 10% then I’d try and get 20%.
Stefon Diggs - $7,600/$25: (15.2%/12.5%)
I expect Howard to cover Diggs this week if he’s healthy enough to play. If he misses then it’s a big bump to Diggs. Howard hasn’t practiced all week, so I’d be very surprised if he plays. Diggs has practiced in full this week, and looks to be fully healthy. He can be extremely frustrating to own, as he can go for 150 and multiple TD’s in a tough matchup, and can bust in an easy matchup. The main predictor has been his health. If he’s fully healthy then he usually smashes. If he’s limited during the week, then he usually doesn’t. As far as I’m aware he’s fully healthy right now. There isn’t a ton to love at WR this week, so Diggs is a good place to go for some upside.
Amari Cooper - $7,500/$23: (15%/11.5%)
The price bump has finally kicked in for Cooper on DK. He’s been priced between $5,400 and $6,600 over the past month…while posting two 40+ point games. While this seems like a lot to pay for his median projection, in tournaments you don’t care about that. Cooper offers slate winning upside, while also showing that he’s still going to get around 8 targets in a week where he doesn’t hit. Cooper has been hyper efficient with his targets over the past few weeks, and that’s going to need to continue against a Colts defense that has faced the fewest WR targets in the league. If I’m making one lineup on DK, it probably doesn’t have Cooper on it. If I’m making 10…then I’d try to get him on at least 2. There are very few WR’s that carry his upside. On Yahoo, where he’s priced much more affordably, I’d consider him on my main lineup.
Julian Edelman - $7,200/$21: (14.4%/10.5%)
Edelman doesn’t have close to the upside that the 3 WR’s listed above have. What he does have is the best floor. The Pats are going to struggle to move the ball on the ground, and the Steelers do a decent job at limiting RB receptions. Where they struggle is over the middle of the field. It’s not a personnel issue, it’s entirely due to dreadful coaching. The Steelers are one of the worst coached teams in the league, and it’s especially apparent with how they deal with slot WR’s. There will be a number of times on Sunday when Edelman will be lined up across from a linebacker. Brady is too good to miss that. He’s not going to post the kind of game that Keenan Allen did two weeks ago, but 10 receptions for 110 yards and a TD is fully in his range of outcomes. 8/88/1 is more likely, but I’d take that line too.
Dante Pettis - $4,400/$12: (8.8%/6%)
Pettis has come alive over the past month with target counts of 6/7/7/7. The matchup isn’t great against the Seahawks, and their implied total of 20.25 could certainly be higher, but he offers a good amount of upside for a cheap price. He’s been getting more snaps than any other 49ers WR recently, and we can expect them to be playing from behind in this game. Pettis is not a cash play, and not someone I want on my main roster. He’s affordable on both sites though and carries more upside than other WR’s in this range.
Andrew Luck - $6,400/$32: (12.8%/16%)
This is more of a DK play as some of the higher priced QB’s are way overpriced on Yahoo. On DK you should really just pick whichever QB you want to stack in that lineup. A Luck/Ebron stack looks like a solid option this week. The Colts are fine with adapting their game plan to fit that of their opponent. That means that they can alternate between run heavy and pass heavy scripts…depending on both game script and how good their opponent is at defending each play type. This week they face the Cowboys who are stronger against the rush than the pass. If Luck throws the ball 40 times gain(like he’s done in back to back weeks), you’re going to want some Luck stacks.
Mitchell Trubisky - $6,000/$30: (12%/15%)
Trubisky is only projected to be 5% owned on DK. That’s not something you should fade. He’s been over 30 fantasy points 4 times this season thanks to excellent play calling, and his ability to get points with his legs. The shoulder injury is of course a slight concern…but he didn’t seem to suffer any sort of set back, and he wasn’t even included on the injury report prior to last weeks game. He posted a dud, which will result in a lot of people shying away, but that was against a tough Rams defense that just got their best CB back. The Packers have played well at home this season…but are slightly more shaky on the road. The same can be said about Trubisky, who averages 15.7 PPG on the road…and 26.4 PPG at home. I always prefer stacking my QB, however Trubisky is one of the only QB’s I’m ok with not stacking. If you do want to stack then I’d lean Allen Robinson or Gabriel, with Robinson being the preferred option. If he comes in at 5% ownership then recency bias will truly be undefeated.
Lamar Jackson - $5,900/$25: (11.8%/12.5%)
Giving the expensive pricing on many of the other QB’s on Yahoo, Jackson is one of the better QB play on that site. He’s appropriately priced for his combination of floor/upside…and has a great matchup on top of that. Tampa has improved on defense over the past month or so, but they are still bad, and Jackson is honestly a cheat code with his rushing abilities. You can by no means stack him with a WR. You are playing him in the hopes that he gets 100 rushing yards and a TD. This isn’t a smash play by any means, as Flacco is able to take over at this point. Because of this I’d only use him in tournaments on Yahoo.
Other Tournament Options: Josh Allen - $5,800/$26: (11.6%/13%), Matt Ryan - $6,000/$29: (12%/14.5%)
Eric Ebron - $5,900/$20: (11.8%/10%)
In week 13 Hilton/Ebron accounted for 74.87% of the Colts air yards. Last week that number was 62.43%. With Hilton missing most of the week with an ankle injury, we can expect Ebron to be the focal point of the passing game. The Colts are 3 point home favorites, projected to score just over 25 points. Dallas has been slightly below average at defending TE’s. Ebron is tied for 7th in the NFL in red zone targets with Odell and Ertz…giving him a strong chance to score a TD this week. If you can afford him, then there’s no reason not to play him. Especially if you land on one of Zeke or Cooper.
George Kittle - $6,300/$20: (12.6%/10%)
I like Ebron more on DK and Kittle more on Yahoo…although I’m fine with playing either on both sites. Kittle has target counts of 10/13/9/9 over the last 4 games, while exploding for 210 yards and a TD last week. The best part about this matchup is the YAC. If you watched the game last week then you know that most of his yards came from YAC. Well, this week he faces a Seahawks defense that has given up the 4th most YAC/R in the league. No TE is a lock, as they all have a floor of 0 even in a good matchup. The upside is massive though. There is a real chance that one of Ebron or Kittle outscores the next best TE by 10 points this week. If that happens then you will need one of them. I’m not saying it will since there are actually more options at TE than usual this week. But it could, which is why they are worth the price tag.
Vernon Davis - $3,200/$10: (6.4%/5%)
This is just a pricing play. If you cant afford the other WR’s on the slate, and you love your lineup, then I’m ok playing Davis. He’s under priced for the starting roll, even against the Jags, and even on Washington’s run first defense.
Jaguars - $3,400/$14: (6.8%/7%)
Ravens - $3,000/$17: (6%/8.5%)
Bills - $2,800/$13: (5.6%/6.5%)
Falcons - $2,700/$12: (5.4%/6%)
Redskins - $2,400/$18: (4.8%/9%)
Patriots - $2,200/$14: (4.4%/7%)