Week 4 DraftKings Breakdown
Alvin Kamara: $9,600 - 35% Owned
Alvin Kamara is going to be the highest owned player in DFS this week. But that’s for good reason. He’s posed 46, 18 and 37 fantasy points over the first three weeks of the season. He’s the perfect mixture of upside with an incredibly high floor. Kamara had a 41% target market share last week to go along with a remarkable 7 red zone targets. That wasn’t a typo. He had 7 red zone targets. This is a RB with the highest TD expectancy, who is coming off a 20 target game. The DK pricing algorithm has a difficult time pricing a player like this, because it’s a combination that we really haven’t seen before. 2016 David Johnson is the closest comparison and he was essentially a lock every single week no matter what the price was. Kamara is approaching that status. It will be interesting to see how much they use Ingram when he returns, but that’s not for another week. Play Kamara in cash, and I’d go over weight in tournaments.
I want to touch on that last part quickly because it’s very important. Just because someone is going to be chalky, doesn’t mean you can’t play them in tournaments…especially when they have an extremely low likelihood of busting. You can fade Julio chalk, you can fade really any QB chalk, and you can absolutely fade TE and D/ST chalk (you probably should fade D/ST chalk). But fading Kamara really only works out for you if he gets hurt. There are plenty of game stacks that you can fit around him that have high correlation, and will also be contrarian.
Top Cash Game Plays:
I’m going to keep this section short because I don’t think you should be playing cash games. Cash games are actually more risky and offer less upside than diversifying in tournaments. Because of that I’ll be doing more tournament plays from here on out.
Tyler Boyd: 4,600 - 30% Ownership
Boyd has been on an absolute tear recently. 90+ yard and 1 TD performances and now gets a Falcons defense that has been decimated by injuries. This game opened at a 48 total and has been bet up to 53 as of Friday night. A.J. Green looks like he’s going to play, but I honestly see that as a good thing. If Green was held out then they may have been able to put more of a focus on Boyd. Now they will have to deal with all of Gio, Boyd, Green and Eifert. At just $4,600 Boyd is simply too cheap.
Giovani Bernard: 6,300 - 25% Ownership
Gio makes the second Bengal in our cash lineup. At this point everyone should know that the Falcons get destroyed by receiving backs. McCaffrey had 14 receptions against them in week 2 and then Kamara followed that up with 15 receptions last week. Bernard will look to continue the trend and put up 16 receptions this week. Ok, maybe not. But with Mixon out he’s going to get virtually all of the third down work in the absolute dream matchup. I really don’t see how you could fade him in cash games.
Andy Dalton: $5,400 - 12% Ownership
See a theme? Play the Bengals. But there is something else that you should notice. This cash build is turning into a tourniment roster. I’m about to recommend Coleman, and also think Ridley is a great play. Again, don’t play cash! Just make game stacks and correlated plays off of that and enter different combinations into tournaments. Anyways back to Dalton. The same thing goes for him. Atlanta is not going to put up a fight on defense, and the Bengals defense isn’t going to be able to stop the Falcons. A $5,400 price tag is laughable in cash games. Just take the discount in a matchup where he should be priced up and move on. Dalton is the QB 12 on the year, and yet he’s priced as the 15th highest QB on the MAIN SLATE. With two teams on bye! Someone messed up this week.
Tevin Coleman: $5,900 - 17% Ownership
Might as well just play this entire game in cash. Coleman is also miss priced with Freeman out again this week. The Bengals have a league average DVOA, but they haven’t proven to be that great in recent weeks. They let Flacco throw for nearly 400 yards in week 2 and then let McCaffrey run for almost 200 yards last week. Coleman may have struggled last week, but he did have a 78% snap share and was given 4 red zone opportunities. I see him bouncing back this week at a price point that’s about $600-$700 too cheap.
Sony Michel: $4,500 - 17% Ownership
Sony isn’t a massive lock this week like I originally thought he would be. I’d probably still play him in cash since they Pats are trying to prove that they were right in taking him in the first round, and the fact that Burkhead being out gives him all of the goal line work. The Pats are also projected to score 27.25 points and have historically played the Dolphins very well at home. My cause for concern is two fold. One is that the Dolphins have actually been really good this year, and have improved a lot on defense. Secondly, Michel looked really bad last week. Even with those two factors you should probably still play him in cash. He’s a safe bet to get more volume than anyone else in that price range.
Using these players and the Bears D/ST leaves you with $6,900 per player for your remaining TE and WR’s. Again, I don’t think you should play cash, but this is actually a decent single entry or tournament build. It’s going to be chalky though so make sure to differentiate somewhere.
Games To Stack in Tournaments:
Saints @ Giants - 51.5 Point Total - #3
This is my Third favorite game stack of the week. I stay that not becasue I won’t have a lot, but because it’s really expensive. To realistically stack this game in case of a shootout you need pieces of Odell, Barkley, Shepard, Manning, Brees, Kamara, Thomas, Ginn and Watson. There are some cheaper options in there, but the ones that have tournament winning upside are very expensive. The best stack is probably going Manning, Odell, Shepard and then picking one or two Saints to run it back with. That is a lower owned and cheaper option that still has a ton of upside. The Saints have been a train wreck on defense this season, and the Giants have been just meh. I could easily see this game going into the 30’s on both sides. Don’t be afraid of Odell’s matchup with Lattimore. He hasn’t been as good as he was last season. If you are making 20+ lineups then at least one of them needs to be Brees/Kamara/Thomas/Giants player. It’s super expensive, but you can still fit it in fairly easily with the value TE and D/ST options.
Texans @ Colts - 47 Point Total - #2
I’m very surprised that this game is only set at 47. Neither team is even remotely good at defending the pass, and both QB’s have the ability to exploit that. If you are a Luck believer then this is the week that you should take your stand. We’ve been avoiding him all season, but now is the time to play him. He’s the 14th highest priced QB at just $5,500 and the game stack is just too easy to make. You could go with Luck/Hilton/Ebron/(One of Fuller/Hopkins), or you could go with Watkins/Fuller/Hopkins/Hilton. That last one is a bit pricey, but could absolutely win someone a tournament. Hilton has double digit targets in every game this season and has historically played much better at home. Luck isn’t throwing the ball deep down field, but he is doing well on his short to intermediate attempts. At that price it’s hard not to go overweight at 4% projected ownership. Ebron is also an exceptional play. The Texans have been terrible so far this season at stopping TE’s and it looks like the Colts will be without Doyle for another week. Ebron lead the team with 11 targets and 4 red zone opportunities. If he falls on the higher side of variance then he’s $500 more and is more chalky this week. I would pay $4,300 easy for him this week and you can get him for just $3,600.
On the Texans side it’s more of the same. Fuller and Hopkins are appropriately priced at $6,800 and $8,400 respectively. That should just lower their ownership levels though. Fuller has absolutely insane splits when Watson is healthy, and so does Hopkins. They were a great stack last week and they are again this week. The Colts have improved against the pass, but that’s just to slightly below league average. Watson and the Texans receiving weapons are a great play this week. I don’t play Lamar Miller you don’t have to go there. Ryan Griffin is an interesting punt play if you want to be different. You probably don’t have to go there though. Every single player in this stack is projected to be under 10% owned. I’ll be well over the field on all of them with different combinations around them.
Bucs @ Bears - 46.5 Point Total - #5
This one is probably going to come as a surprise…even though it shoudn’’t. We’ve said since the start of the season that the Bucs are going to be terrible against the pass and that has been true so far. I like this stack too because there really aren’t that many variations to choose from. You can go with Trubisky/Robinson/Gabriel/Evans…or really any of Evans/Godwin/Jackson. I wouldn’t play any RB in this matchup. Just stick to the passing game. Godwin has looked amazing every time he’s stepped onto the field. I just wish they would up his snap share. The Bears have a really good defense so my inclination is to pick more players from the Bears side and run it back with less Bucs. However, Fitzmagic is currently projected to be about 2% owned. He’s $6,200 and the matchup is tough, but you should probably play at least 5% if he’s going to be that low owned. Robinson was in on 93% of snaps last week and it’s safe to say that he’s 100% back from his injury. He’s the best receiver on that roster by a good amount and is far too cheap at just $5,900 against such a bad pass defense. I’ll be well overweight, even at 13% projected ownership.
Bengals @ Falcons - 53 Point Total - #1
This stack is as far from sneaky as it gets. Also, since I’ve already mentioned a lot of these plays I’ll keep this shorter. Play everyone. Ryan, Julio, Ridley, Hooper, Coleman, Dalton, Eifert, Green, Boyd, Bernard and even Ross are all in play. I’d honestly just make a ton of different variations of game stacks and then have different ways of finishing the roster around that. Below are some of my favorite combos.
Browns @ Raiders - 45 Point Total - #4
I can’t tell if this is going to be a low owned stack or not. My original thought was that a bunch of people would play the Browns against a bad Raiders team. However, the ownership projections are not coming out that way. Njoku is the highest owned Brown at around 11% ownership. All other Browns players are 7% or less. The same goes for the Raiders. Cook is looking at about 13% ownership but everyone else is 7% or less. I’m not going to chase Jordy, and Cook seems slightly over owned. The Browns have actually been decent against TE’s this season and the public hasn’t seemed to notice yet. My ownership will be more on the Browns players. They are underdogs for some reason, even though they have a better offense and defense. It’s probably just because Hue Jackson is such an embarrassing excuse for a coach (not that Gruden is any good). I love Baker since he is a natural pivot off the Dalton chalk. He’s not going to be sneaky though at around 7% ownership. I’ve been a big believer in his talent and I really think the weapons around him are all going to benefit a ton. Landry/Njoku/Calloway and Hyde are all squarely in play and I will be overweight on all of them. Njoku and Calloway are especially interesting at just $3,200 and $4,300 respectively. You can get to some incredible builds starting off with Baker/Calloway/Njoku. I’m going to have a TON of that stack.
Jordan Howard: $6,800 - 6% Ownership
There is just no need to pay for Howard this week. He’s more expensive than Coleman and Bernard who both grade out as far superior plays. There are also some cheaper options that you could take a shot on…plus the obvious pay up options. The Bucs struggle a ton against the past (28th in pass DVOA) but have held opposing RB’s in check (18th in rush DVOA). Howard has looked mediocre so far and I’m not going to bet on him breaking back out this week.
I’m just going to throw the entire 49ers roster into this section. We just need to see what this CJ Bethard offense is going to look like before we trust the with our American dollars. They are going to be super low owned so there is for sure merrit in playing them. But I won’t be. I’ll just take the wait and see approach. Someone could have a goo game, but no on is going to sink you for not playing them.