2019 Draft Rankings
Season Long Projections
Access to Private Chat
Weekly Buy Low/Sell High Model
Machine Learning Model Predictions
Countless hours are put into our rankings to make them as accurate as possible. The rankings take into account not only our personal projections, but also every players upside, floor, and risk. Each depth chart is carefully picked apart and analyzed to determine the exact target and opportunity shares for each player. We consider everything from athleticism, college production, historical NFL success, total projected offensive opportunity, historical coaching tendencies, potential offensive regression and much, much more. We spend every waking second thinking about these rankings, so that your job is as easy as possible. These rankings are broken down into tiers for standard, half point, and full PPR scoring. It also consists of the top 400 draftable players! These rankings contain everything you need to dominate the draft, and yet the draft package offers you so much more.
We’re going to have both season long and weekly projections this season! I’ve constructed a pipeline in Python to create accurate projections, that can be quickly adapted for any breaking news that might (will) occur as we enter draft season. We’ll have exact projections for over 475 players! These projections take into account not only a players historical efficiency, but also any potential regression, and is adjusted for the overall projected production of the offense, and the other players on his team.
In order to maximize their effectiveness, the season long projections should be used along side the rest of the premium rankings. Just because a player is projected for slightly more points, doesn’t mean you should always draft them. Certain players come with more or less risk and upside than others. It’s important to know exactly who you’re drafting when you’re on the clock!
My weekly trade model evaluates how each player was involved in the offense each week, and predicts what their fantasy points should have been. From this, we can find players who have been over and under performing their expectations. Players who are over performing are sell high candidates…while players who are under performing are buy low candidates. This can be used for both season long fantasy football, as well as DFS.
Injury Notes and Risk Ratings:
This season we have Dr. Daniel Khaleel helping us out with each players injury write-up. Understanding a players injury history is important for determining how risky they are. The injury notes section will dive deeper into each players past injuries, and will talk about how much risk they carry going forward.
Each players risk rating is a combination of injury and volume risk. Injury risk is exactly what it sounds like, the risk that a player will lose time due to injury. Volume risk is the risk that a player sees decreased volume from what we’re expecting. Most of the time this comes from a change in either target distribution or snap counts, but it can also come from an offense running fewer plays or performing worse than expected. Last season Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, Marshawn Lynch, Carlos Hyde, Jay Ajayi and Rashaad Penny were given some of the highest risk ratings of draftable players. This should give you a good understanding of what constitutes a risky player. While a good portion of this list suffered injuries, some were also used far less than the community predicted.
Purchasing the Draft Package also gives you access to our in season rankings. Just because you had a great draft, it doesn’t mean you are a lock for the playoffs. You need to be making the right in season moves to set yourself up for success. Our rankings are the first step in that process. We spend a lot of time making sure they are perfect, so all you’ll need to do is refer to them and adjust accordingly!
The in season projections can be used for both DFS and season long leagues. Not everyone believes in using projections for football, but I think they give a good understanding of why players are ranked where they are, and allow you to understand their potential. You might hear people love a certain player one week, but it’s important to know exactly how many targets we expect them to receive. The projections help provide context to the rankings, and can also be used with optimizer sites for building your DFS lineups.
Our Draft Package also gives you access to:
I’ve built a machine learning model that predicts the outcome of NFL games. The model consists of both a Support Vector Machine and an Artificial Neural Network and is trained on data from 2009 up through last season. It predicts not only the winner of the game, but the spread and the over/under. It outproduced PFF Greenline last season, and has proven to beat Vegas lines year over year. I’ll be making the results of the model available each week for all premium members!
Members get access to our daily DFS Breakdown, Trade Targets, and Are We Concerned articles each week!
Weekly DFS Breakdown - Weekly Article
Each week we’ll give a breakdown of the DFS slate. This will include both an overview of the slate, and our favorite individual plays. Slates are never played in a vacuum, and this article dives into which players are worth their price, given the context of the slate.
Trade Targets - Weekly Article
Our Trade Targets article will be going over a number of different players you should be trading for in your leagues. Like I said above, players under-perform for a number of different reasons. That doesn’t mean that they won’t do well going forward. There are also some players who are doing poorly that you should be staying away from. This article will give you our take on how to distinguish the difference and decide who is worth trading for and who should be left alone.
Are We Concerned? - Weekly Article
In this article we take a deeper look into some players that have been underperforming in recent weeks to determine if there is a reason to be concerned or not. Some players get off to a slow start, get unlucky with TD variance, or just have a stretch of really difficult matchups. In this article we try and touch on the players that have the most potential impact to your team and whether you should be holding onto them, or letting them go.