Week 5 DraftKings Breakdown

Top Plays:

Adam Thielen: $7,700

Thielen is an epic play this weekend. He’s dominating the entire league in targets, is 5th in percent of team air yards, comes in second cheapest in dollars per target and 15th cheapest in dollars per air yard. What I’m saying is that he’s been good, and is actually cheap. Oh and he gets to face a pass funnel defense, and their star RB is hurt. If Thielen fails then just know that he was in fact the correct play. Process over results…play Thielen.

Juju Smith-Schuster: $7,500
Guess who else is too cheap? Juju. Well not as bad as Thielen, but he’s way to cheap as well. The Steelers have the highest implied total of the week at 30.5 points so Juju will have plenty of scoring opportunities. Juju has actually outproduced AB so far this season, and while I don’t expect him to finish with more points, he shouldn’t be $1,600 cheaper. James Washington could get lose deep, and Vance/RB’s will take some work…but Juju just has such a mismatch against a depleted Falcons defense that will be without 5 of their 6 best defensive players. He’s going to have over 100 yards and a TD. I promise.

Tyler Boyd: $5,700

Boyd is a very interesting play this week. Current projections have him at roughly 7% - 10% projected ownership, so much lower than he has been in previous weeks. I’m most intrigued because of the matchup. Xavien Howard is going to be matched up with A.J. Green, and I expect Howard to win that matchup. I never pay any attention to WR/CB matchups (or CB/Return specialist matchups…), except for Xavien Howard. This dude is a legit shut down CB this season and I’m not playing Green because of that. The Bengals will be without Eifert, Bernard and John Ross, but will be getting back Mixon. So if I think Green gets shut down then I have to love Boyd! Also after watching him these past few weeks I can say that I also buy into the talent.

Marshawn Lynch: $5,500

I’ve been extremely harsh on the Raiders over the past few months, but this week I love them. I’ll talk about this game in the stacks section so I want to save my love for there. But Lynch is too cheap this week. The line has moved more towards the Raiders in this game and the total us up over 52 now. Lynch’s touch totals this season are as follows: 13, 20, 22, 23. He’s been much more involved in the passing game than he was last season, and is going to get all of the goal line work. This is too cheap of a price tag for 20+ touches in a game that could shoot out.

Melvin Gordon: $8,600

Gordon has gone off so far this season, and I expect that to continue on Sunday. He has a crazy 24 receptions on the year to go along with 5 TD’s through 4 weeks. Just last week he saw 10 targets and 7 red zone opportunities. In fact of all PLAYERS he ranks 6th in red zone TARGETS. Sure $8,600 is a lot to spend, but he can easily be used as part of a game stack since the Raiders side is so cheap. Oakland is 28th in rush DVOA and the Chargers are currently 5 point home favorites. There’s just nothing going against Gordon this week.

Vance McDonald: $3,700

Vance is in a smash spot this week. He’s going to be chalky (20% projected ownership), but for very good reason. Ertz and Kelce are by far the best projected TE options on the slate, but they are also very expensive on a week where there aren’t as many pay down options as there usually is. Vance is sub 4K…but is the starting TE on the team with the highest implied total of the week. We have seen his upside both this season and last season. His only issue is staying healthy. Like I said above and will again below, the Falcons are extremely injured on defense. Vance is going to be open a lot.

Play the QB of the game you’re stacking

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D/ST’s:

Ravens: $2,800

Jets: $2,600

Titans: $4,000

Bills: $2,300

49ers: $3,000

Top Games Top Stack:

Steelers(-3) vs Falcons - Projected Score: 31-27

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This is the game to stack if you are only making one lineup. The Falcons will be without 5 of their top 6 defensive players, and just can’t stop anyone right now. They are getting crushed by not only pass catching backs, but basically anyone who is breathing. Add a home Big Ben and you have to think this game shoots out. You can, and should, play everyone on the Steelers side of the ball. AB, Juju, Conner, and Vance are all elite plays while James Washington, Ryan Switzer, and Jessie James are some low owned options for tournaments.

On the Atlanta side of the ball it’s more of the same. Julio and Matt Ryan are elite options while Ridley, Sanu and Hooper are solid options to fill out a game stack. Ridley is a little expensive for the amount of targets he actually gets (66th highest price per target) but not all targets are created equal so don’t be afraid of using him as a one off or as part of a game stack. Sanu might feel a little point chasy, but he’s still just 4K and is going to be less than 10% owned.

I won’t be touching the ground game in this one at all. Freeman is back, but you can’t play him coming off the injury. Coleman will get work, but he’s too expensive for what his role will be now. Ito was a viable punt option, but not with Freeman back now. It’s just the passing game for Atlanta that I’m interested in.

My favorite stacks:

Ben/AB/Juju/Ridley

Ben/Juju/Vance/Julio/Ridley

Ryan/Julio/Sanu/Conner/Juju

Best one off:

Juju

Chargers (-5) vs Raiders - Projected Score: 29-24

I’m very excited to see the ownership levels in this game. Gordon will be about 20%-25% owned because of how good of a spot he’s in. But the rest of the players I like in this game should be relatively low owned. Ekeler has been crushing it on a per touch basis this season, and offers great savings for just $4,200. Mike Williams disappointed a lot of people last week, but I’ll be going right back to the well this week (I wasn’t burned). These outside CB’s on the Raiders aren’t talented enough to cover Williams. $4,200 is at least $500 too cheap. He’s not a core piece by any means since his floor is pretty low. However he’s great as part of a game stack.

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The Raiders side is really what I like though. I was shocked when I first looked at the pricing this week. Carr, Lynch, Cooper, Jordy and Cook are all way too cheap. Now, all of them can’t go off. But if you play tournaments then you should cycle through different combos of these players. I’d very much consider Carr in cash, and there is a real case to be made of stacking him with Amari/Jordy and Lynch and just locking up all of the TD’s on that team. Cooper has more upside so That’s the way I’m leaning if you are deciding between him and Jordy. The saving on Jordy is really nice though. Also for those who are concerned with Amari’s inconsistency…I get it. But his down games have come against the Rams and Xavien Howard. In both of his other matchups he has crushed it. I’m taking that chance at $5,500 against an overrated Chargers defense.

My favorite stacks:

Carr/Lynch/Amari/Gordon

Carr/Lynch/Jordy/Gordon

Carr/Amari/Jordy/Gordon/Mike Williams

Rivers/Gordon/Ekeler/Amari/Jordy

Best one off:

Gordon

Chiefs (-3) vs Jaguars - Projected Score: 26-23

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I’m super excited for this game! Not only because it’s the best offense against the best defense, but because of the trash talk that has already taken place this week. In case you live under a rock, check twitter and see what Ramsey said about Tyreek Hill. While Ramsey is technically correct, Hill has been much more than a return specialist and has absolutely massive upside ever time he steps onto the field. You need to have Mahomes/Hill stacks every singe week and week 5 is no exception. Hill is matchup proof and I could absolutely see him exploding at around 5% ownership and a reduced price point.

Watkins is either going to be out, or very limited this week so you really don’t have to go overboard on a bunch of different Chiefs stacks. It’s Mahomes/Hill/Kelce and that’s it. I’m not playing Hunt since the Jags limit RB production and his 57% snap share just isn’t high enough for me to take the risk.

On the Jags side of the ball I like Bortles. He’s a cash viable option, but I prefer Carr and it just doesn’t feel safe enough in a week with so many good options at QB. In tournaments though I’m all for some cheap Jags stacks. The Chiefs are garbage on defense so any team that plays them is on my radar. I like Dede the most of the pass catchers since he is the most talented of the WR’s. ASJ is a non factor so it’s not worth going there…even if you are mass entering. I’d rank them Dede/Cole/Moncrief. Yeldon is a solid RB option against a Chiefs defense that ranks dead last in rushing DVOA. I really want to be able to use him in cash, but Lynch is the better play, and I really want to get one of the stud RB’s in.

My favorite stacks:

Mahomes/Hill/Dede

Mahomes/Hill/Yeldon/Dede

Mahomes/Hill/Kelce/Yeldon/Dede

Bortles/Yeldon/Dede/Hill/Kelce

Best one off:

Dede

Eagles (-3) vs Vikings - Projected Score: 25-22

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I really like the Vikings side here from a stacking perspective. The Eagles allow almost no production on the ground and are very beatable through the air. I feel very comfortable in saying that Jalen Mills and Sidney Jones do not have the ability to cover Thielen and Diggs. So we have a Vikings team that has an injured RB, going up against a team that shuts down RB’s, that has two WR’s accounting for over 75% of the teams air yards, against a team that has below average CB talent. If Cousins throws for 330+ yards then these two WR’s are going off. Thielen is my favorite as I stated above since he has a higher percent of team air yards and has a safer target total. That’s not to say I don’t love Diggs, just that I’m playing Thielen over him if I have to choose one. You can play Rudolph as part of a game stack. Just not as a one off.

On the Eagles side of the ball I’m less excited. Wentz and Ertz are elite options, while Alshon and Agholor are good as part of a game stack. The Eagles can just score in so many ways that I’d rather just stack up the Vikings side and run it back with whoever your favorite option is.

My favorite stacks:

Cousins/Thielen/Diggs/Ertz

Cousins/Thielen/Diggs/Alshon

Cousins/Thielen/Diggs/Agholor

Best one off:

Thielen

Lions (-1) vs Packers - Projected Score: 26-25

This is the final game I’d consider stacking this week. It’s a little risky since there is for sure a chance that the game turns into a slower ground and pound game. However, there is also the chance that this game takes down tournaments. If one of these teams can jump out to an early lead then this game is going to be fun to watch.

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The best Lions players to target depend entirely on the health of Marvin Jones. He’s extremely mispriced at just $4,700, but suffered an injury in practice. If he is out then Golladay and Tate become elite plays. I think he plays though so he should be on your radar in tournaments. I would order the Lions weapons as follows: Jones/Golladay/Tate/Stafford/Johnson. I prefer not to play Johnson since they for some reason still want that backfield to be a committee. Until they go away from the split I just can’t justify paying the elevated price with elevated ownership.

The Packers have been hit with a massive wave of injuries this week. Cobb is already out and Allison is looking like he will be out as well. I’d be locking in Adams if he didn’t also have a calf injury and a matchup with Darius Slay. He’s going to be peppered with targets, but I like Thielen and Juju a little bit more. Even if Allison plays this is an intriguing spot for Marquez Valdes-Scantling. I can’t tell how chalky he’s going to be but initial projections have him at around 5%-7% ownership which isn’t too bad as a salary saving option at just $3,300. I’m playing him at about 12% right now and he is in my main lineup. I don’t feel amazing about that though so he’d be the first to go if I change anything and he isn’t a core play like the others listed above. He is the starting slot WR for Aaron Rodgers and has legitimate double digit target upside. If that happens then he’s going to crush. Graham is intriguing as well. One would think that he would get more targets with all of these guys out. That didn’t really happen last week though. His TD expectancy is higher but should remain unpredictable between the 20’s.

Aaron Jones is an option, but is getting chalky as the week has moved on. I can’t justify playing him since he still isn’t getting targets and will split time no matter what. Give me Ekeler in that range or pay up a little more for Lynch or Yeldon. Ty Montgomery is worth a shot at low ownership if Allison is out. They would likely play him at WR a little bit and could need to play him more as a scat back if the Lions put up some quick points.

My favorite stacks:

Stafford/Jones/Golladay/Adams

Stafford/Jones/Golladay/MVS

Rodgers/Adams/Graham/Tate/Jones

Rodgers/Adams/Montgomery/Jones/Golladay

Best one off:

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

and

Marvin Jones

Nick Zylak