Week 10 DraftKings Breakdown
By: Nick Zylak
Top RB Plays
Todd Gurley - $9,400
You are going to have to decide between Gurley and Gordon this week. There aren’t a ton of value options so fitting in both isn’t going to work. Both teams are 10 point favorites, and both are implied to score 30 points. Both are heavily involved in the passing game, and in the red zone. They are close, but my lean is towards Gurley. He’s just proven to be so consistent, with so much upside, that I’m willing to pay the extra 400. I’ve yet to decide if he’s worth paying up for this week…but the early indications are a no. There are some really good RB plays for cheaper, and not very many cheap WR plays I’m excited about. Playing or not playing Gurley will come down entirely to roster construction. If I have the salary then he’s going to be my high end spend. If not, then I’m not overly concerned with fading him.
After playing around with some lineups I have landed on one that I like that has Gordon…and needs that 400 savings. I still prefer Gurleu if you can find the $400. But if you can’t then I’m more than ok with Gordon.
Alvin Kamara - $8,700
Kamara’s touch counts over the last 6 weeks are as follows. 31/24/9/19/20/23. Seeing the 9 in there will scare some people into thinking that Kamara is a high variance and risky play. Well, he’s not. The dud came on a week when he had a small injury right before their bye. It was clear going into the game that they would lean on Ingram a bit more than usual. He has over 26 fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games, and even with the dud he has just 3 games under 26 points. The safety that Kamara provides with receptions and red zone usage is massive. He’s a great cash game play, and carries as much upside as anyone on the slate. I’m uncertain if he will be on my main team at this point. That decision will come down to whether or not I play Ingram.
Tevin Coleman - $5,400
Coleman is an interesting play this week. After first looking at the slate I expected him to come in at around 12%-15% ownership…but he’s currently projected for just 7%. Coleman gets a matchup with a browns defense that ranks 2nd in pass DVOA, but 30th in rush DVOA. I don’t expect the Falcons to struggle to throw the ball…but I also expect them to take advantage of their matchup advantage on the ground. Coleman should get between 15 and 17 carries with around 5 targets in the passing game, to go along with a few red zone chances. Ito is there, and is going to take targets and touches. However, Coleman has multi TD upside, for a cheap price, at fairly low ownership. He’s not someone I think will be on my main team, but he’s a great GPP play.
Duke Johnson - $4,700
Duke is a very obvious play this week. He’s projected to be one of the 5 highest owned RB’s on the slate…so a GPP fade could be in store. For cash games though this is a solid play. Everyone knows that the way to attack the Falcons is with pass catching RB’s, the question is whether or not the Browns coaching staff will be smart enough to exploit this. My guess is that they will. Last week we had the same doubts, and a very similar matchup. The Chiefs struggled defending the ground game, especially pass catching backs. So what did the Browns new OC do? He ran Chubb 22 carries and Duke 9 targets. We should expect a similar stat line this week. Maybe not 9 targets, but Duke can turn 6/7 targets into 13-14 points, which is what we are looking for in this price range. He’s not as safe as some people will tell you this week…but he’s still a good play.
Dion Lewis - $4,600
Lewis has snap counts of 32/45/59 over the past three weeks…with touch counts of 7/19/23. He’s so clearly the best RB on that team that it’s amazing the Titans are still even using Henry. Game script can tell you which back will get the most work each week, and this sets up as a Lewis game. The Titans are 7 point home dogs against a Patriots defense that ranks 8th in rush DVOA. Where the are susceptible is through the air. As per JMtoWin the Pats have allowed the second fewest rushing TD’s to RB’s, but have allowed the fourth most receptions and the second most receiving yards to the position. The Titans will for sure be losing this game for most of the game, and are unlikely to be able to move the ball through Henry and Davis. Look for Lewis to pay off his cheap 4.6K price tag.
Mark Ingram - $4,500
I like Ingram a solid amount this week. He’s not as involved as he used to be, but he’s for sure worth more than $4,500. The Saints are projected to score 30 points against a Bengals defense that we’ve already established is less than mediocre. The Bengals rank 27th in rush DVOA and have allowed 4.9 YPC on the year (30th) and a pathetic 5.7 YPC over the last three games. Box score watchers will shy away from Ingram this week, and although the lack of production is concerning, he should not be priced this low. I don’t know at this point if he will be on my main team. But it’s entirely possible that he will be.
Top WR Plays
Michael Thomas - $8,100
The only potential issue with Thomas is the price. The Bengals can’t stop anyone on defense and Thomas has proven to be one of the best WR’s in the league. The 8.1K price tag is more than fair given his level of safety and just how terrible the Bengals are against the pass. My one concern is roster construction. We all know that Tyler Boyd is a lock, and you really do need to get the stud RB’s in each week. Because of that I just don’t see myself playing Thomas. In large field GPP’s he’s a good play, and we saw his slate winning upside last week against the Rams. But in cash and single entry tournaments it’s just not optimal to fit him in this week.
Tyler Boyd - $7,400
I can almost guarantee you that Tyler Boyd will come in at lower ownership than sites project. He’s almost never chalk, and he’s currently priced as the 4th most expensive WR on DK. Boyd gets a dream matchup against a Saints defense that has been crushed by slot WR’s this season. A.J. Green is going to be sidelined for this game and Eifert is out for the season. His only competition for targets is Mixon, Ross and Erickson. Oh and the Bengals are expected to be trailing the entire game. I would be very surprised if Boyd wasn’t in my lineup this week.
Mike Evans - $7,000
Mike Evans is one of the best plays on the slate. In the games where Fitzmagic has played Evans has target counts of 7/12/11/9/13/10. He’s been over 100 or a TD in 5 of those weeks, and the one dud came last week on 10 targets. I expect Evans to bounce back against a Washington defense that teams have skewed very pass heavy against. The Bucs pass offense has been elite this season, and that is going to continue in this home tilt against Washington’s 29th ranked pass defense. Evans is likely to see shadow coverage by Josh Norman this week…which isn’t something to fear at all. Norman allowed Julio to catch his first TD of the season last week, and should have allowed two if not for a blatant DPI late in the game. Norman hasn’t been good this season, making this a smash spot for Evans, at a ridiculously low price point. I very much want Evans to be on my main team with Boyd.
Kenny Golladay - $5,100
Golladay is an amazing WR. The talent isn’t the issue with him…it’s the offense. The Lions have been largely disappointing this season, which is confusing since the core of Golladay, Jones, Tate, KJ, Stafford should be one that’s putting up 30+ every single week. But hey, that’s what you get when you believe in Matt Patricia. The Lions said goodbye to Tate a few weeks ago, and the passing game has struggled since then. Now they get a road matchup with a Bears defense that has been elite against both the run and the pass. The Lions are also 7 point underdogs, implied to score just 18.5 points. This is why Golladay can’t be used in cash. In GPP’s though he makes for a great play. People will be scared off by the low total, the Bears defense, and his recent box scores. His sheer talent, and the fact that he’s one of the only real weapons for Stafford to throw to, give him massive upside any time he steps onto the field.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - $5,000
If Golladay isn’t your guy, then let me introduce you to MVS! We all remember MVS chalk week earlier this season…well this is going to be part two. He’s miss priced for his current role in the offense now that Rodgers has trust in him. He’s seen target counts of 11/6/5/6 over the past 4 weeks and now gets a matchup with a very beatable Dolphins secondary. Xavian Howard will be on Adams the whole game, and we know that Rodgers likes to exploit matchups when he sees a mismatch. I expect MVS to teach Torry McTyer a lesson on Sunday. Current projections have him at 14% ownership, but I expect that to end up around 17%. Regardless, unless things change, he will be in my lineup.
Top TE Plays
I’m not very excited about TE this week. If you can fit in Kelce then go for it. I’m not expecting a massive week since I don’t expect this game to be close for very long. He’s unlikely to be on my main team, but if you find a way to fit him in then go for it. Last week we had O.J. Howard as the clear pay down spot, but this week I just don’t see a clear option. My advice would be to construct the rest of your roster how you like it, then leave D/ST and TE for last and to see what fits.
Jack Doyle - $4,300
Doyle is a good play this week for a few reasons. One is the price. He offers a solid discount off Kelce, and has a decent chance of matching him points per dollar. The second is his ownership. He’s only coming in at 5% because of the matchup with the Jaguars. The last positive is the game environment. Yes, the Jaguars are an elite defense, however, they have actually allowed 4% more production than league average to the TE position according to Football Outsiders. We also know that Doyle doesn’t exactly run the deepest of routes. The Jags will be able to limit Luck’s production, but it’s entirely possible that Doyle is able to rack up 7-8 receptions and a TD on limited yardage. Don’t be concerned at all about the split with Ebron. Doyle outsnapped Ebron 57/17 in his return from injury two weeks ago and looks like he’s 100% back from injury. Doyle is my favorite TE play of the week so far.
Austin Hooper - $3,800
I like Doyle more than Hooper. Value is hard to come by though, so if you need the savings then drop down to Hooper. The matchup is great against a Browns defense that has been susceptible to TE’s recently. His main concern is the same one that has plagued him his entire career. Volume. There has yet to be a week where we can actually feel good about the volume he’s going to get. Could he get 9 targets this week? Maybe. Could he get 2 targets this week? Yup. You just can’t rely on the Falcons putting out a predictable game plan each week. Because of this I can’t recommend him in cash, but he’s a solid salary saver in GPP’s.
Travis Kelce - $7,000
There will never be a week when Kelce is on the slate and I tell you not to play him. Especially in yet another week with no Gronk or Kelce. Last week I talked about the Paradox of Value. Kelce and Howard were really the only two TE’s I liked on the slate, and Kelce was capable of so many more points than any other TE that he was worth the cost. This week is slightly different. There isn’t as much strong value, and the little value that we do have comes at the RB position, where we usually like to pay up. Because of this there will be more variance baked into lineups. Adding Kelce as a pay up option will make your roster have a lot more variance than usual. I like Kelce, but I do feel that Doyle can post a good enough score, at a much better price point than I’m more comfortable going with him.
Top QB Plays
Drew Brees - $6,300
If you can find the savings then Brees is your best bet at QB this week. Brees has been inconsistent this season, and has been noticeably worse on the road. Everyone has heard of his home/road splits, but it’s been more about the matchup than anything for Brees this year. He’s been under 17 points in each of his last three road games, however two of those games have been at Baltimore and at Minnesota. This week the Saints travel to Cincinnati to take on a dreadful Bengals defense. The Saints are projected to score about 30 points in the game with the highest over under of the week. Plays in this game are going to come down to TD’s. Ingram/Kamara/Thomas/Brees are all in great spots, but one of them is likely to disappoint due to lack of TD’s. My best guess is that the Saints score a few times on the ground. Because of this I won’t be using Brees on my main team. I want to pay up at WR, and for at least one RB. There are some solid options at QB for cheaper so I don’t think I’ll be playing Brees. He’s a great tournament play at under 10% ownership.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - $5,900
Ahh Fitzmagic. If I could be assured that whoever starts for the Bucs would actually finish the game as the QB then I would lock in that guy every week. No one has thrown for more yards this season than the combo of Bucs QB’s…and they are second in TD’s. I really want to stack him with Evans against this mediocre Washington pass defense, but it’s going to be tough to pull the trigger. If you’re looking for upside in this range then Fitzmagic is your guy. If you’re looking for a super safe play then he certainly is not. It all comes down to your play style and the format you are playing. If you think he finishes the game then he should smash his price tag. Just be aware that it’s by no means a safe play.
Baker Mayfield - $5,400
If you’re looking for savings then Baker is your guy. The new coaching staff finally utilized Duke Johnson like they should last week, and I expect that to continue this week. I’m hopeful that they will finally take advantage of the opposing defenses now, which would translate to a good week for Baker. The Browns should be able to get yardage on this Falcons defense, whether they score TD’s will largely come down to variance. I probably wouldn’t stack Baker with anyone other than Njoku or Duke…and I’d be ok running him without any pass catcher. They spread the ball around a lot last week and he could absolutely throw for over 300 and a few TD’s with no one pass catcher having an amazing week. I’m strongly considering him as my QB this week because of the price point.