NFL Lines Model

What is this?

Below are the predictions from my machine learning model. It’s been trained on data from 2009-2018, and has proven to be more accurate than Vegas over time. There are going to be some good weeks, and there are going to be some bad weeks. But over time, these predictions will beat Vegas.

Important before using:

The model doesn’t know how teams rosters change during the offseason, or after trades during the season. So, for example, it has no idea that AB is on Oakland…and now New England, and that Bell is on the Jets. It’s going to learn this as the season unfolds, but it doesn’t know to start the season.

Occasionally, some games are going to be massive blowouts. Take the Dolphins and the Pats from week 2. There aren’t very many examples in the training data were games are that lop sided, so it has a tough time knowing what to do. I’d hold off on betting games with 13+ point spreads, as my model is never going to predict a game to be that lop sided.

Key:

Spread: Projected spread for the game. This is from the perspective of the home team. A negative number here means the home team is favored by this amount. A positive number means the home team is projected to lose by this amount

Total: Projected total for the game

Home Team Implied Total: Projected point total for the home team

Away Team Implied Total: Projected point total for the opposing team

2019 Accuracy:

Spread: 18-14 | 56%

Total: 19-13 | 59%

Moneyline: 24-6 | 80%

Updates: Once the model is run, nothing is going to change. I’ll upload the predictions for the next week each Tuesday night.


Week 3 Predictions


Home Team Away Team Predicted Winner Spread Total Home Team Implied Total Away Team Implied Total
1 JAX TEN TEN 3.19 35.26 16.04 19.22
3 BUF CIN BUF -5.75 43.25 24.5 18.75
5 DAL MIA DAL -9.84 44.98 27.41 17.57
6 GB DEN GB -2.97 47.16 25.06 22.1
8 IND ATL IND -5.45 48.52 26.99 21.54
10 KC BAL BAL -1.84 50.31 26.08 24.24
13 MIN OAK MIN -3.14 42.39 22.76 19.62
15 NE NYJ NE -11.41 42.8 27.1 15.69
16 PHI DET PHI -6.05 46.4 26.22 20.18
19 ARI CAR CAR 2.59 46.96 22.18 24.78
20 TB NYG NYG -0.83 48.68 24.76 23.92
22 LAC HOU LAC -2.37 48.28 25.32 22.96
24 SEA NO SEA -4.08 45.31 24.7 20.62
26 SF PIT PIT -3.56 48.12 25.84 22.28
29 CLE LA LA -0.32 49.69 25 24.68
30 WAS CHI CHI 2.73 42.73 20 22.73