Week 2 DFS Breakdown
Week 2 offers us a massive 13 game main slate…with 6 teams projected to score 26+ points…and three of them projected over 29. It’s unlikely to be as high scoring as week 1…but scores should still be up. We also have the benefit of the Raiders playing on Monday night. All of their prices are too cheap, so this is a spot you should be attacking in cash games. For tournaments, you should be filling out your roster with different game stacks. You don’t need a bunch of players from each side, but in general, you should be stacking your QB with a WR, and running it back with something on the other side. The real question is how much OAK you should have in tournaments. They’re locks in cash, but will come at high ownership in GPP’s. That’s a choice you’ll have to make, as it depends entirely on how you see this game playing out. My lean is going overweight and differentiating elsewhere.
Lamar Jackson vs Arizona ($6,700)
This isn’t going to be a sneaky play. Everyone saw the explosion a week ago, and everyone knows the Cardinals are a great matchup. As far as I’m concerned, your only three options for cash games and small field GPP’s are Jackson/Mahomes/Allen. These two are so clearly above the field, and could both post scores above 35. Lamar scored 36.5 fantasy points on just 20 pass attempts…and 3 carries last week. That sort of production has zero chance of repeating, but I want to remind everyone that there are two elite matchups for fantasy production this season. Miami…and Arizona. We’re going to target the offenses of every team matched up with these two this season. Arizona plays at the fastest play in the league, so as long as this isn’t a 30 point blowout by half, this could be one of the highest play volume games of Baltimore’s season. The Cardinals just allowed Stafford to throw for nearly 400 yards and 3 TD’s…which was his best game since week 3 of 2016. It’s just a bonus that the Ravens are at home…projected to score 29.5 points.
Saquon Barkley vs Bills ($9,200)
Barkley is the top RB play on the slate, and the matchup is set up for him to explode. Shepard has already been ruled out, and the Bills are great at limiting WR production. Because of this, the entire offense is going to run through Engram and Barkley…with a massive amount of the volume flowing through Barkley. Last week the Giants gave him just 11 carries and 6 targets. If they want any chance of winning this one, then he’s going to need more volume than that. He has the most upside, and highest floor of any top end RB this week…and you have the salary to get there in cash.
Josh Jacobs vs Kansas City ($4,700)
Thanks to not playing until Monday night…Jacobs failed to see a price bump after his week 1 performance. Jacobs posted a 23/85/2 stat line on Monday night…leading the Raiders to an opening night win against the Broncos. He also turned his only target into a 28 yard reception. Jacobs is one of the few pricing mistakes at RB this week…but I do want to highlight his floor. He only had one target, so when the Raiders get down, it’s possible we see more Jalen Richard then we’d like. It’s also possible that we see Jacobs used as a true featured back, in which case he’s likely to post a score you need to have. He’s a strong cash game play…and he’ll be popular in tournaments.
Devin Singletary @ New York Giants ($4,200)
As per usual, the majority of the Bills offense is under priced (John Brown saw an unfortunate price bump). Singletary was in on the majority of snaps (45), and even lined up as a WR on 12 of those snaps. Even with all those snaps…they somehow only gave him 4 total carries. His rush attempts should increase, especially after Frank Gore turned his 11 carries into just 20 yards. This is an explosive Bills offense, and their skill position players always go under owned. I need more secure volume from my RB’s in cash…but I’d absolutely be overweight in tournaments.
Michael Gallup @ Washington ($5,600)
Gallup is too cheap for his role in the offense. He saw 7 targets, 82 air yards…and converted that into a 7/158/0 stat line. The performance might look like a spiked week, but he’s clearly a featured part of this offense, and he didn’t score on any of Dak’s 4 TD passes. Incredibly…my model lists Gallup as a BUY LOW candidate…meaning he should have actually scored MORE fantasy points for his given volume last week. Washington just got dusted by Eagles pass catchers last week, and with a 26 point implied total, we can expect more of the same this week. Gallup is a strong play, and will be under owned after the price hike.
Darren Waller vs Kansas City ($3,300)
When at all possible…you should be paying down at TE. Kelce and Engram are the two exceptions I’d make this week…but Waller is just so under priced. He was in on 100% of snaps last week, which is unheard of for non elite TE’s. With those snaps, he was able to convert 8 targets into 7/70…even in a game where they were ahead right from the start. Derek Carr was only forced to throw the ball 26 times, so Wallers 8 targets and 55 air yards translated into a 26% target share and a 31% share of the teams air yards. Waller is going to serve as the first or second option in this passing attack…and that’s a great spot in a game where the Raiders are projected to be playing from behind. This is value you have to take in cash and small field GPP’s.
Chiefs @ Raiders
This is one of the two highest upside stacks on the slate…and the scary part is…it’s not that expensive. Sure the Chiefs players are priced near or at the top of their respective positions…the Raiders are all under priced. And they’re home. If this game were in arrowhead, then it might be a different story, but it’s not. The Chiefs are 7.5 point road favorites, but with a 52.5 point total, this game projects to shoot out. The Raiders offensive line held their own against the Broncos on Monday night, and the Chiefs are an easier defensive line matchup. If you’re playing cash, you should be playing Tyrell and Waller. It’s as simple as that. There’s also a very real chance you should be playing Jacobs as well. With all of these guys being strong plays, it just makes too much sense to run it back with Chiefs players. The Raiders could do well if the Chiefs don’t…but 1) what are the odds all of the Chiefs bust…and 2) these plays become much stronger if the Chiefs do go off. That’s the sort of correlation you need to be building into your lineups.
Top Plays for KC:
1) Mahomes and Kelce
Top Plays for OAK:
1) Waller and Tyrell
2) Carr and Jacobs
Seahawks @ Steelers
This stack is only reserved for GPP’s, as Juju is the only cash viable play in this game. This build revolves around the idea that the Steelers jump out to an early lead…and Seattle is forced to throw to catch up. Neither team is likely to have success on the ground, but both will be able to hold their own through the air. The unfortunate part about this stack is the Seattle side. They’re incredibly dedicated to the run, that it’ll take a 3 score lead for Seattle to go pass heavy. If that does happen though, then this game is going off. Wilson should have no trouble hitting Lockett and Metcalf through the air…and very few defenses have been able to slow down Ben at home.
One thing I want to note is Lockett. Many of you are going to be scared off after last week. He had just one target, which went for a 44 yard TD. I’m not concerned about his performance. He was being doubled all day…and the Steelers have proven over the years that they don’t like to prepare on defense. “Oh Lockett is matched up with a linebacker this play? That’s fine, our guys will stop him…” They have routinely allowed opposing RB’s and slot receivers to get far more often than they should, solely becasue they refuse to properly game plan. If Seattle is forced to catch up, then Lockett is going to have a big game.
Best way to stack this game:
Full Stack: Big Ben/Juju/(Moncrief or Washington)/Lockett/Metcalf
Half Stack: Big Ben/Juju/(Moncrief or Washington)/(Lockett or Metcalf)
Mini Stack: Big Ben/(Juju or Moncrief or Washington)/Lockett
Saints @ Rams
This is going to be an extremely popular game to stack, especially with all the hype surrounding this one. There’s honestly no one that’s out of play, and it’s very unlikely that this game doesn’t at least approach the high implied total. The thing with this one is it’s popularity. A bunch of lineups are going to feature the studs, so the best way to attack it in GPP’s is to find a unique stance…and to MAKE SURE YOUR LINEUP MAKES SENSE. Construct a game flow in your head, and build a lineup that fits it. Lots of people will be playing Goff/Cooks/Kamara…or Brees/MT/(one of the Rams receivers). Try to figure out a way to stack this game that other people will overlook. I’ll list my favorite stacks below…but know that literally everyone is in play, so don’t hold yourself to these. As for cash, this actually isn’t your best option. MT will have a tough time, so he’s unlikely to post a slate breaking score. Kamara is solid, but always gets less volume than we’d like in cash, especially on the road. The Rams receivers are all priced fair…and I’d rather target values in cash. Brandin Cooks is probably the one I’d target if you want…but again…the Rams are priced fairly.
(As you can see, Cooks is my favorite Rams WR)
Low Owned Dart Throws
James Washington vs Seattle ($3,600 | 3%)
Tyler Lockett @ Pittsburgh ($6,200 | 3%)
Christian Kirk ($4,500 | 2%)
Latavius Murray (3,700 | 2%)
Kyler Murray ($5,400 | 1%)
David Montgomery ($4,900 1%)
Cody Latimere ($3,700 | 1%)
Hair on Fire Play of the Week
Damien Harris @ Miami ($3,500)
There’s one very obvious caveat to this play…Harris might not play. So if he’s inactive, then I shouldn’t have to tell you not to play him. If he does play though, then it tells us a lot about how the Patriots view this game. It would make me hesitant to play Sony, and indicate they don’t take the Dolphins as a serious opponent. They’ll go run heavy with whichever RB’s they have active….involving the passing game with play action, and getting AB some extra reps with Brady. Under this scenario Harris could see 15 carries, with plenty of TD opportunities. At $3,500 he would make for a great low owned play.