What Is This Page?
Given the popularity of my model predictions, I thought I’d put together a page that makes it super easy to see which sides of best the model thinks you should take. This page will highlight the total and spread for each game of the week, and will indicate which side of the bet you should take. For the most part, these predictions are straight from the model, however, I built the model, so I know it’s shortcomings. I know what bits of information it’s lacking, so I apply that information on top of each prediction. For the most part, this relates to games with extremely high totals, or extreme point spreads. My model will never predict a total of 57, and will never post a spread greater than 13 or 14 points. Because of this, I’d hesitate making bets on massive spreads, but I’ll post which side I would take on them (since the model will always say take the points).
This page highlights the side of each prediction that you should take for the given the Vegas line. For example, if the game says CLE @ BAL (-5.5)…then that means my model thinks you should take the -5.5 side of the bet…then the next column says what team that would mean taking. So for this example, you would be picking BAL (-5.5). If it says NE @ BUF (+7.5)….then the pick side says BUF…it means you should pick BUF (+7.5). If you’re at all confused, just know you should be picking the side of the spread that’s listed under the pick column. The same thing works for the total, although that one is much easier to understand. Over would mean that the model predicts the game to score more points than the over/under line.
If you want to read more about the model, then go to the Week X Pick’em Model page to see how it was made. This page can be viewed as a quick way to see which bets you should be placing…whereas the other page can be used to see how much my prediction differs from Vegas…and what the actual prediction is. Betting lines also change throughout the week, and differ from site to site. So if you want to see the exact prediction, then again go to the Week X Pick’em Model page.
Units: +40.95 units
Winning Weeks: 5
Losing Weeks: 1
Updates: Once the model is run, nothing is going to change. I’ll upload the predictions for the next week each Tuesday night.