What you see below is the model results for the previous week. The model uses a players volume (among other things) to predict how many fantasy points (Half PPR) they should have scored through the air that week. On the left are players that over performed their volume expectation, and on the right are players who under performed. Any player that significantly over performs can be considered a sell high candidate, and any player that significantly under performs can be considered a buy low candidate. Each week, I’ll post the top players from each list, and write a brief summary below with my thoughts on the players. There are absolutely going to be players that routinely make the buy low list that are just bad, and shouldn’t be traded for. That’s what the summary below is designed to go over.

Week 2 Top Under Performers (Buy Low):

Phillip Lindsay: -6.4 fpts

Courtland Sutton: -6.3 fpts

Davante Adams: -6.1 fpts

David Johnson: -5.6 fpts

Cody Latimer: -4.6 fpts

Sammy Watkins: -3.9 fpts

John Brown: -3.9 fpts

Michael Thomas: -3.8 fpts

Noah Fant: -3.5 fpts

Chris Carson: -3.1 fpts

Christian McCaffrey: -3 fpts

Marvin Jones: -2.7 fpts

Hunter Renfrow: -2.7 fpts

Allen Hurns: -2.7 fpts

Week 2 Top Over Performers (Sell High):

Vance McDonald: +9.2 fpts

Demarcus Robinson: +8.2 fpts

Geronimo Allison: +7.2 fpts

Mark Andrews: +6.9 fpts

Odell Beckham Jr: +6.4 fpts

T.J. Jones: +6.1 fpts

Will Dissley: +6 fpts

Tyler Eifert: +5.95 fpts

Paul Richardson: +5.8 fpts

Nelson Agholor: +4.9 fpts

David Quessenberry: +4.9 fpts

Hayden Hurst: +4.8 fpts

Kerryon Johnson: +4.7 fpts

Stefon Diggs: +4.5 fpts

demarcus robinson 2.jpg

Sell High Breakdown:

There are no surprises at the top of this week’s sell high model. Vance happened to catch two TD’s, while bringing in all of his 7 targets for a 7/38/2 stat line. He had just 12 total air yards…which was good for only 5% of the team market share. We also see Demarcus Robinson at the top, fresh off his 6/172/2 performance. I shouldn’t need to explain why he won’t be doing that again. Geronimo Allison is third on the list. He commanded just 16 total air yards, saving his final stat line with a 12 yard TD. He’s just not as involved as the other weapons in this offense. Mark Andrews makes the list this week after his second 8/100+/1 stat line. I wouldn’t trade Mark, as elite TE’s are hard to come by, but this indicates that perhaps we shouldn’t be expecting this sort of performance each week. Odell comes in 5th after his 89 yard TD catch. If we played the slate out 100 times, then he puts up less than his 161 yards more often than not. The Browns offense just doesn’t look right…but I’d only trade Odell if you’re getting first round value. Diggs got a little lucky with the long TD catch (his only catch). But he did have a TD called back in this one. The Vikings are barely throwing the ball this season, so it’s not crazy to see what you can get for Diggs. Aside from those players, nothing really stands out. The rest really just caught short TD passes, but there’s no one you could actually sell high on.

adams 2.jpg

Buy Low Breakdown

Lindsay and Sutton come in with the top two spots after their matchup with the Bears. That’s going to happen when you play the Bears. Sutton is likely going to make this list most weeks…as he gets a lot of air yards. His problem is the QB throwing him the ball isn’t very good. Davante Adams claiming the third spot is exciting. He’s played two tough defenses to start the season, and he’s been unable to find the end zone. Adams had 127 air yards, which was a 48% team market share. He’s an absolute stud, and should be your top WR target this week in trades. Cody Latimer continues to rack up the air yards…but not the fantasy points. That’s partly due to his QB play, and partly due to him being Cody Latimer. To the surprise of none who knew the matchup (Oakland’s defensive coordinator has a history of stopping the opposing team’s top WR) Watkins under performed this week. It wasn’t without trying however, as he commanded 13 targets and 139 air yards, good for a 30% and 25% team share respectively. He has another touch draw this week at home against Baltimore. John Brown is another exciting name to see here. He’s posted back to back 7 reception performances, with a stat line of 7/72/0 this past week. That line came on 8 targets, and 110 air yards…good for 27% and 45% respectively. Brown is a massive part of the Bills aggressive offense…and would be my second favorite WR target in trades this week. No one else really stands out. Michael Thomas would be a great guy to go after, but with Brees out for over a month, I wouldn’t advise trading for him.